Lots 1-11 Cayuga St · East Moriches, NY 11940

$1,180,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.77 ac lot $393/sqft · 22% above area Est $967k · 22% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing Oriole Run, a premier 11 lot subdivision in the heart of East Moriches. This thoughtfully designed development offers the perfect blend of privacy, modern living, and coastal charm. Each lot is ready for your dream home, built by a trusted custom builder who brings unmatched craftsmanship and attention to detail. Refer to the yield map for what lots are still available. Choose from a variety of homes tailored to your lifestyle. Whether you envision a contemporary ranch, a classic colonial, or a fully customized design. Our builder will work with you to bring your dream home to life from concept to completion. Oriole Run combines serene surroundings with convenient access to local amenities, beaches, and parks. Experience the peace of suburban living without sacrificing proximity to Long Island’s best offerings.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Serene surroundings
• 0.77 acre lot

Tags

• PREMIER LOT SUBDIVISION
• TRUSTED CUSTOM BUILDER
• UNMATCHED CRAFTSMANSHIP
• SERENE SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.18M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($92k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.18M).
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.2% in East Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#905 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #97 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $35k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $330k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,073,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.77%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $967,439
• List price: $1,180,000
• Delta: 21.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Montauk Hwy	0.17mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,799 (-7%)	4mo	$575,000	$205	70
14 Culver Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,600 (-13%)	3mo	$1,225,000	$471	67
31 Mill Pond Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,900 (-3%)	22mo	$765,000	$264	50
21 Watchogue Ave	0.56mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,800 (-7%)	22mo	$965,000	$345	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $296,023
• Equity at exit: $175,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $886,001
• Equity at exit: $102,025

Cash invested: $330,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11940

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,475 /mo · $17,700/yr
• Insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $7,645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,322

Max offer price $1,180,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $295,000
• Closing costs: $35,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Tuthill Point Rd East Moriches, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$20,000	$6.67	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,180,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,180,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,180,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,180,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,180,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    price $1,180,000 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Introducing Oriole Run, a premier 11 lot subdivision in the heart of East Moriches. This thoughtfully designed development offers the perfect blend of privacy, modern living, and coastal charm. Each lot is ready for your dream home, built by a trusted custom builder who brings unmatched craftsmanship and attention to detail. Refer to the yield map for what lots are still available. Choose from a variety of homes tailored to your lifestyle. Whether you envision a contemporary ranch, a classic colonial, or a fully customized design. Our builder will work with you to bring your dream home to life from concept to completion. Oriole Run combines serene surroundings with convenient access to local amenities, beaches, and parks. Experience the peace of suburban living without sacrificing proximity to Long Island’s best offerings.

15. 2026-03-10
    listed $999,000 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    Introducing Oriole Run, a premier 11 lot subdivision in the heart of East Moriches. This thoughtfully designed development offers the perfect blend of privacy, modern living, and coastal charm. Each lot is ready for your dream home, built by a trusted custom builder who brings unmatched craftsmanship and attention to detail. Refer to the yield map for what lots are still available. Choose from a variety of homes tailored to your lifestyle. Whether you envision a contemporary ranch, a classic colonial, or a fully customized design. Our builder will work with you to bring your dream home to life from concept to completion. Oriole Run combines serene surroundings with convenient access to local amenities, beaches, and parks. Experience the peace of suburban living without sacrificing proximity to Long Island’s best offerings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,098
• − Property taxes: −$17,700
• − Insurance: −$5,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$34,327
• Taxable income: $77,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,618
• After-tax cash flow: $73,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This property is a new construction with no visible signs of wear and tear. It is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a prime location in a new development.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Moriches Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609870
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $87,937
• Composite: 64.63/100
• National rank: #528
• State rank: #97 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Moriches

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #905
• US rank: #17704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Moriches, NY
• City population: 5,508
• Population (ZIP): 5,508

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.56%
• Current HPI: 309.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $1,180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid