1351 North Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1880 3,705 sqft lot $43/sqft · 48% below area Est $86k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Equally desirable to both owner occupants and investors alike! Seller of this four bedroom, one full bathroom two story home with full basement is MOTIVATED for a quick sale, so hurray and take advantage of this opportunity! Spacious living room, dining room, eat in kitchen, forced air heating. Currently rented for $1,280. * Can be bought as a bundle; 2627 Ontario MLS B1657800, 1303 Ontario MLS B1657796, and 1351 North Ave MLS B1657792 *

Key facts

• 3,705 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $45k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.85%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,996
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -47.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2322 14th St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-1%)	14mo	$55,000	$53	83
1011 Centre Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	10mo	$77,500	$77	68
1362 Michigan Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-2%)	12mo	$25,000	$25	67
1133 Whitney Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,057 (+2%)	3mo	$76,100	$72	65
1512 Willow Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,148 (+10%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	61
1145 Whitney Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	992 (-5%)	1mo	$105,100	$106	60
1647 Linwood Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	15mo	$125,500	$115	59
2189 Seneca Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,125 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	59
1812 Pierce Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+11%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	55
2217 Michigan Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	5mo	$40,000	$42	50
939 Grove Ave	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (+14%)	5mo	$180,000	$151	48
2261 Cleveland Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+13%)	9mo	$179,000	$153	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $37,425
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $90,415
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $546

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $713	+0% $700	+5% $688	+10% $675
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $644	+0% $700	+5% $757	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $723	-0.5pp $712	base $700	+0.5pp $689	+1.0pp $677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	0.27mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	0.27mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	2d	1	0.51mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	0.60mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	0.69mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.74mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.78mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	0.85mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.85mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	0.87mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.93mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.06mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.13mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	24d	1	1.20mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	1.33mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.38mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 458-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $44,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-01-13
    listed $44,900 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Equally desirable to both owner occupants and investors alike! Seller of this four bedroom, one full bathroom two story home with full basement is MOTIVATED for a quick sale, so hurray and take advantage of this opportunity! Spacious living room, dining room, eat in kitchen, forced air heating. Currently rented for $1,280. * Can be bought as a bundle; 2627 Ontario MLS B1657800, 1303 Ontario MLS B1657796, and 1351 North Ave MLS B1657792 *

18. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus $22,000 Closed Sale or Rented 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property features 4 bedrooms, fully fenced yard, large room sizes & nice front porch to chill on.

19. 2019-05-03
    status Pending Sale 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property features 4 bedrooms, fully fenced yard, large room sizes & nice front porch to chill on.

20. 2019-04-19
    status Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property features 4 bedrooms, fully fenced yard, large room sizes & nice front porch to chill on.

21. 2019-04-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property features 4 bedrooms, fully fenced yard, large room sizes & nice front porch to chill on.

22. 2019-04-01
    listed $26,000 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property features 4 bedrooms, fully fenced yard, large room sizes & nice front porch to chill on.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,130 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,130 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $8,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $6,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+72.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) $22,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-19 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $26,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,130 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.