1221 RT 9G · Haviland, NY 12538

$569,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1973 1.20 ac lot Est $653k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This multifamily home is well kept by the owners and it is fully occupied. Sits on over an acre. Home has 3 units in it. Unit 1 3 bedrooms 2 baths Unit 2 2 bedrooms 1 bath Unit 3 studio 1 bath

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service provided by Central Hudson; Septic sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Private trash collection; Water available
• Home design: Triplex
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: One 2-bedroom unit; One 3-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Finished walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-801/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (49.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (47.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (49.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph R Smith School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 340 students, 54% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,065 (49.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.04%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,098
• List price: $569,900
• Delta: -12.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-194,246
• Equity at exit: $84,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-300,148
• Equity at exit: $49,275

Cash invested: $159,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12538

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 31.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$760 /mo · $9,120/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-1,601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,046

Max offer price $287,065

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,278	-5% $-1,440	+0% $-1,601	+5% $-1,762	+10% $-1,924
Rent	-10% $-1,840	-5% $-1,720	+0% $-1,601	+5% $-1,482	+10% $-1,363
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,314	-0.5pp $-1,456	base $-1,601	+0.5pp $-1,749	+1.0pp $-1,899

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$3,020
Total (2 units)			$3,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,475
• Closing costs: $17,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $569,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $569,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $569,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $569,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $569,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $569,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $569,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $569,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $569,900 Active 74-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,120 · $760/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,376 · $781/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,923
• − Property taxes: −$9,120
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$16,579
• Taxable loss: −$30,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,104

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.47%
• Current HPI: 272.998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $569,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,120 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.