19 Junior Ave · Minetto, NY 13069

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1993 1.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home on a little over an acre. Needs some TLC, but lots of potential and space to make this house your own. Offering Hardwoods in the living room, vaulted ceilings, master bath, first floor laundry, double wide paved driveway and two sheds.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Hardwoods
• Decks

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• EXTERIOR DOORS
• DECKS
• HARDWOODS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Entry level on main floor; Existing resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular lot (approx. 200 x 248)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Resilient flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in Minetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#554 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hannibal Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #471 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $61,105
• Equity at exit: $94,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $167,159
• Equity at exit: $177,702

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,272/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $139,900 Active
2. 2022-04-25
   soldstatus $80,030
3. 2022-04-14
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed Sale or Rented 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home on a little over an acre. Needs some TLC, but lots of potential and space to make this house your own. Offering Hardwoods in the living room, vaulted ceilings, master bath, first floor laundry, double wide paved driveway and two sheds.

4. 2021-12-29
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home on a little over an acre. Needs some TLC, but lots of potential and space to make this house your own. Offering Hardwoods in the living room, vaulted ceilings, master bath, first floor laundry, double wide paved driveway and two sheds.

5. 2021-12-24
   listed $89,900 Active 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home on a little over an acre. Needs some TLC, but lots of potential and space to make this house your own. Offering Hardwoods in the living room, vaulted ceilings, master bath, first floor laundry, double wide paved driveway and two sheds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,272
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126
• After-tax cash flow: $2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hannibal Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $48,283
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4380
• State rank: #471 of 590 in NY

Livability — Minetto

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #554
• US rank: #9951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 223
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2022-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,030 Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CNYIS
• 2021-12-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-12-24 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,272 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.