3787 Fairburn Dr · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$234,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 0.38 ac lot Est $274k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Diamond in the rough with endless potential! Perfectly positioned in an established neighborhood, this charming brick 1½-story home is ready for its next chapter. With 4 bedrooms, a spacious layout, and a large fenced backyard, the possibilities are endless for creating the home of your dreams. Bring your vision and a little TLC to transform this property into a true neighborhood showpiece. Whether you're an investor, renovator, or buyer looking to build equity, this home offers a rare opportunity to unlock exceptional value in a prime location.

Key facts

• Prime location
• Spacious layout
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.38 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Heat pump with gas; Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1956
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and gas heating; Heat pump and gas cooling; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley Elementary (math 63% / reading 75%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 518 students, 43% FRL); Hidden Valley Middle (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #28 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 578 students, 26% FRL); Hidden Valley High (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 830 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $235k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,031 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,436
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4509 Colonial Place Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,745 (-0%)	8mo	$500,000	$287	69
3220 Hartley Cir SW	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,808 (+3%)	1mo	$369,950	$205	68
3652 Martinell Ave	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,656 (-5%)	7mo	$260,000	$157	62
3628 Janney Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,942 (+11%)	14mo	$302,000	$156	52
3604 Janney Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,998 (+14%)	0mo	$385,000	$193	48
4558 Colonial Place Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-11%)	7mo	$400,000	$258	46
3411 Westmoreland Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,811 (+4%)	15mo	$232,000	$128	46
3432 Manassas Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,952 (+12%)	3mo	$249,950	$128	46
3539 Richards Blvd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,968 (+13%)	6mo	$258,000	$131	45
3406 Poplar Dr	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,931 (+10%)	2mo	$299,950	$155	44
3510 Pilot Blvd	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+14%)	9mo	$240,000	$120	40
3341 Westmoreland Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,904 (+9%)	6mo	$349,900	$184	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-26,082
• Equity at exit: $35,032

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,951
• Equity at exit: $20,314

Cash invested: $65,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,876/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $234,950

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,738
• Closing costs: $7,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3620 Manassas Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,300	$1.92	44d	1	0.27mi
3413 Stonehenge Sq Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,900	$1.25	44d	1	0.47mi
3464 Colonial Ave Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	13d	5	0.67mi
3273 Forest Ridge Rd Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,850	$1.48	21d	1	0.69mi
3345 Circle Brook Dr Cave Spring, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,920	$1.92	13d	11	0.87mi
3101 Honeywood Ln Roanoke, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	919	$1,690	$1.84	13d	7	0.87mi
3602 Colonial Green Cir SW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,622	$1.57	13d	1	1.01mi
3711 Crescent Ridge Dr SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,899	$1.30	21d	1	1.05mi
4356 Old Garst Ml Rd Cave Spring, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	889	$1,341	$1.51	13d	14	1.07mi
2917 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	21d	1	1.29mi
2923 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	21d	1	1.29mi
2911 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	21d	1	1.29mi
3427 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	44d	1	1.31mi
3423 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	44d	1	1.31mi
3419 Evergreen Ln SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	3.5	2240	$3,195	$1.43	44d	1	1.33mi
5260 Crossbow Cir Unit 8A Roanoke, VA	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,450	$1.23	21d	1	1.34mi
5204 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,595	$1.30	44d	1	1.36mi
5220 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,695	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 551-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $234,950 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,161
• − Property taxes: −$2,876
• − Insurance: −$1,841
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$6,835
• Taxable loss: −$1,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$366
• After-tax cash flow: $2,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-06-11 Listed $234,950 MLSRV
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,876 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.