507 W Olive St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$110,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · Other · 62 Days on market

Built 1929 1,350 sqft lot $62/sqft · 63% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If a move in single is what you seek this is it! Entertainers paradise for the Mt Carmel Red Tornadoes fans, just 1 block from the silver bowl. Walk in to your street level bar/game room/entertaining area - sit on your covered back patio or relax in your private fenced back yard with a fire pit to take in all the game day excitement! Upstairs you will find an open concept living room with cozy electric fireplace where you can interact freely with guests in your updated and modern kitchen, full bath is also located on this floor. Level 2 is home to a spacious primary bedroom featuring a walk in closet and second story porch and bedroom 2. Third floor is heated bonus space with closet should you need a 3'rd bedroom. Low taxes - sq ft to be independently verified by buyer.

Key facts

• 1,350 sq ft lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,493
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 62.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $61,068
• Equity at exit: $71,329

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $157,711
• Equity at exit: $131,275

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $770/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $869

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $110,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $119,900 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Call Mathlene 570-933-2176 ! Entertainers paradise with fenced yard, balconies and more for the Mt Carmel Red Tornadoes fans, just 1 block from the silver bowl. Walk in to your street level bar/game room/entertaining area - sit on the covered back patio or relax in your private fenced back yard with a fire pit to take in all the game day excitement! Upstairs you will find an open concept living room with cozy electric fireplace where you can interact freely with guests in your updated and modern kitchen, full bath is also located on this floor. Level 2 is home to a spacious primary bedroom with private balcony, a walk in closet and another bedroom. Third floor is heated bonus space with closet should you need a 3'rd bedroom. Low taxes - sq ft to be independently verified by buyers

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $119,900 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Call Mathlene 570-933-2176 ! Entertainers paradise with fenced yard, balconies and more for the Mt Carmel Red Tornadoes fans, just 1 block from the silver bowl. Walk in to your street level bar/game room/entertaining area - sit on the covered back patio or relax in your private fenced back yard with a fire pit to take in all the game day excitement! Upstairs you will find an open concept living room with cozy electric fireplace where you can interact freely with guests in your updated and modern kitchen, full bath is also located on this floor. Level 2 is home to a spacious primary bedroom with private balcony, a walk in closet and another bedroom. Third floor is heated bonus space with closet should you need a 3'rd bedroom. Low taxes - sq ft to be independently verified by buyers

18. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus $88,000
19. 2024-05-30
    soldstatus $88,000 Closed
20. 2024-05-30
    soldstatus $88,000 Closed
21. 2024-04-15
    status Pending
22. 2024-04-13
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2024-04-12
    listed $84,900 Active
24. 2024-04-12
    listed $84,900 Active
25. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $770 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 62.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$770
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$852
• After-tax cash flow: $4,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $119,900 CSVBR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) $88,000 CSVBR
• 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) $88,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-13 Contingent — CSVBR
• 2024-04-12 Listed $84,900 CSVBR
• 2024-04-12 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $770 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.