1145 E Barham Dr Spc 260 · San Marcos, CA 92078

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1972 $291/sqft · at area comps Est $291k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled home in San Marcos Mobile Estates. Located high on the hill with no one behind. Great open floorplan with modern updates. New vinyl plank flooring, butcher block kitchen island with gas stove and hood. Farmhouse sink with quarts counters. This home stays comfortable in the summer and winter with dual pained windows, new insulation and fresh acrylic coat on roof. The master bedroom has a barn door leading to a new walk in shower and new sink and toilet. Guest bathroom has been remodeled with quartz counters and new tub. The remodel included drywall, light switched, ceiling fans, paint, light fixtures, recess lighting and more! There is a large front yard, nice side patio and back yard with shed! This home is close to shopping, Costco and Kaiser hospital. Financing available!

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Dual pained windows
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• BUTCHER BLOCK KITCHEN ISLAND
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• DUAL PAINED WINDOWS
• NEW INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.10%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,760
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1145 E Barham Dr #180	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	7mo	$145,000	$137	78
1145 E Barham Dr #125	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	17mo	$215,000	$213	75
1145 E Barham Dr #267	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	10mo	$295,000	$268	67
1145 E Barham Dr #123	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,070 (+12%)	22mo	$285,000	$266	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-19,662
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,114
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92078

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1113 Privet St San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,595	$2.57	24d	1	0.47mi
220 Woodland Pkwy #250 San Marcos, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$3,500	$5.00	43d	1	0.70mi
218 Woodland Pkwy #146 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	908	$2,900	$3.19	43d	1	0.70mi
852 Avenida Ricardo San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	784	$4,081	$5.21	1d	13	0.79mi
570 E Barham Dr San Marcos, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	840	$3,108	$3.70	3d	14	0.85mi
506 E Barham Dr San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$3,095	$4.02	16d	4	0.87mi
823 Nordahl Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,808	$3.17	2d	1	0.89mi
506 E Barham Dr Unit 230 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$3,095	$3.44	3d	1	0.90mi
506 E Barham Dr Unit 224 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,895	$3.22	2d	1	0.90mi
506 E Barham Dr Unit 130 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,975	$3.31	2d	1	0.90mi
452 Lynwood Ln San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,250	$3.25	43d	1	0.92mi
1898 Matin Cir #189 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$3,195	$3.19	43d	1	1.02mi
1412 Pine Heights Way San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,900	$2.64	12d	1	1.16mi
250 N City Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0–3.0	821	$3,684	$4.49	5d	21	1.43mi
975 Woodland Pkwy San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$3,275	$4.33	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    listed $279,000 Active 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home in San Marcos Mobile Estates. Located high on the hill with no one behind. Great open floorplan with modern updates. New vinyl plank flooring, butcher block kitchen island with gas stove and hood. Farmhouse sink with quarts counters. This home stays comfortable in the summer and winter with dual pained windows, new insulation and fresh acrylic coat on roof. The master bedroom has a barn door leading to a new walk in shower and new sink and toilet. Guest bathroom has been remodeled with quartz counters and new tub. The remodel included drywall, light switched, ceiling fans, paint, light fixtures, recess lighting and more! There is a large front yard, nice side patio and back yard with shed! This home is close to shopping, Costco and Kaiser hospital. Financing available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,984
• − Management: −$2,984
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $2,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$481
• After-tax cash flow: $5,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,605
• Household income: $120,268
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1594.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.55%
• Current HPI: 358.3294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $279,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $257 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.