3143 Maywood Dr · Mount Morris, MI
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 96°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.3/10.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$29,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great opportunity on this three bedroom ranch home with a one car detached garage. Enclosed porch as you come in the front door. Large open living room and kitchen area. Big mud room/laundry. Deck on the back and fenced back yard.
Key facts
- Open living room
- Fenced back yard
- Enclosed porch
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($885 rent vs $30k).
- Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Westwood Heights Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #704 of 760 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.96% ✓
- Cap rate
- 26.06%
- Cash-on-cash
- 70.61%
- DSCR
- 4.14
- GRM
- 2.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $25,578
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3143 Maywood Dr | 0.00mi | 3/1.0 | 882 (0%) | 1mo | $35,000 | $40 | 99 |
| 2210 Canniff St | 0.48mi | 3/1.5 | 905 (+3%) | 1mo | $83,000 | $92 | 70 |
| 4807 Birchcrest Dr | 0.58mi | 3/1.5 | 878 (-0%) | 4mo | $35,000 | $40 | 67 |
| 1913 Cherrylawn Dr | 0.66mi | 3/1.0 | 878 (-0%) | 5mo | $19,000 | $22 | 64 |
| 3030 Mccollum Ave | 0.25mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 960 (+9%) | 8mo | $28,000 | $29 | 62 |
| 3419 Leerda St | 0.54mi | 3/1.0 | 938 (+6%) | 4mo | $25,500 | $27 | 61 |
| 2118 Santa Barbara Dr | 0.50mi | 3/1.0 | 950 (+8%) | 5mo | $21,000 | $22 | 60 |
| 2495 Lavelle Rd | 0.62mi | 3/1.0 | 822 (-7%) | 6mo | $17,500 | $21 | 55 |
| 1818 Parkfront Dr | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 | 972 (+10%) | 4mo | $63,000 | $65 | 53 |
| 4702 Warrington Dr | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 | 1,010 (+14%) | 3mo | $82,900 | $82 | 41 |
| 1705 W Pasadena Ave | 0.61mi | 3/1.5 | 1,008 (+14%) | 7mo | $9,000 | $9 | 40 |
| 3221 Burgess St | 0.72mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 755 (-14%) | 3mo | $15,900 | $21 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 70.2%
- Equity multiple
- 4.17×
- Total profit
- $26,542
- Equity at exit
- $4,458
- IRR
- 74.2%
- Equity multiple
- 8.59×
- Total profit
- $63,565
- Equity at exit
- $2,585
Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48504
- Active inventory
- 131
- Price-to-rent
- 2.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $885 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$157
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$37 /mo · $448/yr
- Insurance
- −$12
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$186
- Net cashflow
- $493
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $7,475
- Closing costs
- $897
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3506 Brownell Blvd Flint, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $825 | $1.38 | 13d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 3221 Burgess St Flint, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 755 | $875 | $1.16 | 21d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2462 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2462 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 3376 Preston Pl Unit PRE3376 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 2410 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2410 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 2410 Gena Ann Ln Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 2419 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2419 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 2332 Fredonia Ave Unit FRE2332 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 3616 Concord St Unit CON3616 Flint, MI | 3.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $895 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 711 W Dewey St Flint, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1011 | $925 | $0.91 | 21d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 5905 Griggs Dr Flint, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 940 | $1,000 | $1.06 | 13d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 3424 W Mott Ave Flint, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 682 | $725 | $1.06 | 43d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 5413 DuPont St Flint, MI | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1038 | $900 | $0.87 | 21d | 1 | 1.39mi |
Listing history 9 events
-
2026-04-28status Pending 230-char remark
Show marketing remark (230 chars)
Great opportunity on this three bedroom ranch home with a one car detached garage. Enclosed porch as you come in the front door. Large open living room and kitchen area. Big mud room/laundry. Deck on the back and fenced back yard.
-
2026-04-28status Pending
Show marketing remark (230 chars)
Great opportunity on this three bedroom ranch home with a one car detached garage. Enclosed porch as you come in the front door. Large open living room and kitchen area. Big mud room/laundry. Deck on the back and fenced back yard.
-
2026-03-27$29,900 Active 230-char remark
Show marketing remark (230 chars)
Great opportunity on this three bedroom ranch home with a one car detached garage. Enclosed porch as you come in the front door. Large open living room and kitchen area. Big mud room/laundry. Deck on the back and fenced back yard.
-
2026-03-27$29,900 Active
Show marketing remark (230 chars)
Great opportunity on this three bedroom ranch home with a one car detached garage. Enclosed porch as you come in the front door. Large open living room and kitchen area. Big mud room/laundry. Deck on the back and fenced back yard.
-
1999-11-24soldstatus $26,500 105-char remark
Show marketing remark (105 chars)
Move In Condition!! Seller To Pay $1,500 Toward Purchasers Points, Closing Costs & Prepaids If Any.
-
1999-11-24soldstatus $26,500
Show marketing remark (105 chars)
Move In Condition!! Seller To Pay $1,500 Toward Purchasers Points, Closing Costs & Prepaids If Any.
-
1999-10-13historical
-
1999-05-28$31,900 105-char remark
Show marketing remark (105 chars)
Move In Condition!! Seller To Pay $1,500 Toward Purchasers Points, Closing Costs & Prepaids If Any.
-
1999-05-28$31,900
Show marketing remark (105 chars)
Move In Condition!! Seller To Pay $1,500 Toward Purchasers Points, Closing Costs & Prepaids If Any.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $10,621
- − Mortgage interest
- −$1,675
- − Property taxes
- −$448
- − Insurance
- −$150
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$850
- − Management
- −$850
- − Depreciation
- −$870
- Taxable income
- $5,779
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,387
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,524/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Westwood Heights Schools
- NCES district ID
- 2635970
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 16% ▲ 3.00%
- Median HH income
- $33,020
- Composite
- 12.82/100
- National rank
- #14544
- State rank
- #704 of 760 in MI
Livability — Mount Morris
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #357
- US rank
- #9095
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- City population
- 19,519
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,873
Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 381,312 people
- By 2030
- 362,731 · -4.9%
- By 2040
- 321,550 · -15.7%
- By 2050
- 279,212 · -26.8%
- By 2075
- 193,336 · -49.3%
- By 2100
- 128,118 · -66.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (66%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 66% White 24% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Genesee
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -101.67%
- Current HPI
- 94.3111
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
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| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
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| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
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| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
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| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
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| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
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Price history
-6.3% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2026-04-28 Pending — REALCOMP
- 2026-03-27 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
- 2026-03-27 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 1999-11-24 Sold (MLS) $26,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 1999-11-24 Sold (MLS) $26,500 REALCOMP
- 1999-10-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 1999-05-28 Listed $31,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 1999-05-28 Listed $31,900 REALCOMP
Property tax history
+10.5%/yrLatest (2025): $2,320 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…