3010 S 19th St · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1917 3,920 sqft lot $40/sqft · 47% below area Est $75k · 47% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New windows, new front door, newly poured slab with 3' deep footings

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($285/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($932 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.88%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,252
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -46.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3022 S 19th St	0.03mi	1/1.0	1,036 (+3%)	11mo	$47,500	$46	85
3209 S 22nd St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	999 (-1%)	18mo	$70,000	$70	66
2423 S 17th St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+2%)	10mo	$119,000	$116	63
2301 Atchison St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	914 (-9%)	2mo	$144,900	$159	60
2530 S 19th St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	975 (-3%)	19mo	$129,000	$132	59
2314 S 19th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+6%)	11mo	$79,000	$74	52
2510 S 19th St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	863 (-14%)	6mo	$42,000	$49	50
3815 E Ayrlawn Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	984 (-2%)	10mo	$139,900	$142	50
2328 S 15th St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	19mo	$139,900	$135	47
2340 S 13th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	8mo	$134,900	$146	46
2702 S 28th St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,052 (+4%)	11mo	$150,000	$143	42
2711 Cedar St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (+13%)	12mo	$139,900	$123	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-4,686
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-986
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2219 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	0.86mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 605 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1141	$940	$0.82	44d	1	1.35mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 22 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	866	$998	$1.15	44d	1	1.35mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 603 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1176	$910	$0.77	44d	1	1.35mi
3303 S 35th St St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	782	$925	$1.18	3d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $40,000 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    New windows, new front door, newly poured slab with 3' deep footings

17. 2026-03-27
    status Active 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    New windows, new front door, newly poured slab with 3' deep footings

18. 2026-03-21
    status Pending 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    New windows, new front door, newly poured slab with 3' deep footings

19. 2026-03-21
    listed $45,000 Active 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    New windows, new front door, newly poured slab with 3' deep footings

20. 2012-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 26.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$5,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$895
• − Management: −$895
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable loss: −$43
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $40,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $45,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.