63548 E Holiday Dr · Saddlebrooke, AZ 85739

$289,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · Condo public records · 355 Days on market

Built 1999 $550/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

Key facts

• Pantry
• New carpet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW PAINT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PANTRY
• TONS OF STORAGE
• COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has spa; Lot zoning: Other - CALL
• HOA & community: Part of an association (SB 2); Monthly HOA includes blanket insurance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, front yard maintenance, gated community, pest control, roof repair and replacement; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation room, security, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball, fitness center, jogging/bike path, putting green, golf, rec center and athletic facilities; HOA monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage door opener; Attached garage cabinets
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered slab patio; Block fencing; Decorative gravel; Front yard sprinklers; Borders common area; North/South exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Entrance foyer; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-35/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (0.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Saddlebrooke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#168 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oracle Elementary District (4444) (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #159 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $228k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,758
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-39,898
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85739

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,952/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $288,479

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38873 S Serenity Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1709	$2,875	$1.68	24d	1	0.06mi
38774 S Desert Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1638	$2,775	$1.69	18d	1	0.06mi
38844 S Carefree Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1740	$3,500	$2.01	18d	1	0.10mi
38973 S Tranquil Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1448	$2,800	$1.93	24d	1	0.20mi
63692 E Vacation Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1709	$2,800	$1.64	10d	1	0.22mi
38162 S Desert Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2106	$2,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.40mi
39548 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1638	$2,700	$1.65	1d	1	0.67mi
39019 S Moonwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1959	$2,800	$1.43	18d	1	0.68mi
39589 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	1d	1	0.71mi
38325 S Mountain Site Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2218	$2,975	$1.34	16d	1	0.94mi
64528 E Wind Ridge Cir Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	18d	1	0.97mi
37330 S Canyon View Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,500	$2.45	24d	1	0.97mi
64576 E Wind Ridge Cir Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,700	$1.75	24d	1	0.98mi
63945 E Orangewood Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	2194	$2,900	$1.32	24d	1	1.05mi
38040 S Elbow Bend Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1810	$2,400	$1.33	24d	1	1.15mi
38045 S Elbow Bend Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2141	$3,100	$1.45	24d	1	1.18mi
65091 E Diamond Ridge Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	2075	$2,800	$1.35	24d	1	1.23mi
61736 E Oakwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1478	$4,300	$2.91	1d	1	1.38mi
37514 S Desert Star Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1576	$2,500	$1.59	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 340 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    price $289,000
15. 2026-01-05
    price $324,000
16. 2025-07-25
    price $334,000
17. 2025-06-27
    listed $345,000 Active
18. 2018-10-22
    status Pending 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

19. 2018-10-18
    soldstatus $228,000 Closed 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

20. 2018-09-05
    historical Active Contingent 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

21. 2018-08-31
    historical 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

22. 2018-08-24
    listed $228,000 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Beautiful Portofino Villa was Robson model. Builder upgrades throughout, offered tastefully furnished. HVAC replaced 2012. New interior paint & carpet throughout. Newer oven, dishwasher & microwave. The spacious eat in kitchen has tons of storage and room for an island. With cathedral ceilings, a split floor plan, fabulous master suite, covered porch and no neighbors behind you this is a winner. Can be sold turnkey/furnished. Epoxy coating. The Villa Association maintains, repairs and replaces the roof, exterior paint and stucco, irrigation, landscaping, driveway, patio, blanket insurance policy and pest control. They even blow off your driveway every month. Now that's living the SaddleBrooke way!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,952
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,850
• − Management: −$2,850
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$4,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $1,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oracle Elementary District (4444)
• NCES district ID: 0405640
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,899
• Composite: 20.97/100
• National rank: #8469
• State rank: #159 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Saddlebrooke

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #18326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saddlebrooke, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,749

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.24%
• Current HPI: 211.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+26.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $289,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $324,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $334,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-27 Listed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-10-22 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-10-18 Sold (MLS) $228,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-09-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-08-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2018-08-24 Listed $228,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,952 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.