2012 Kennedy Cir #10 · Keizer, OR 97303

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1978 $119/sqft · 86% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and move-in ready! This charming 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find newer flooring, fresh paint, and a well-designed floor plan that’s ready for you to make it your own. Bring your style and creativity—this home is the perfect canvas to decorate and truly make yours. Conveniently located just minutes from I-5 and nearby shopping centers, this is a great opportunity for anyone seeking comfort, value, and an easy commute.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 188 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.06%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,003
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 86.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2062 Kennedy Cir NE #54	0.05mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	11mo	$62,000	$67	84
2077 Kennedy Cir NE #69	0.08mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	11mo	$66,500	$79	72
4783 Joyce St #93	0.05mi	2/2.0	800 (-13%)	2mo	$50,000	$63	70
1138 NE Chemawa Lp	0.51mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	19mo	$82,000	$98	45
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.64mi	2/1.0	800 (-13%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	41
1164 Chemawa Lp NE	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+13%)	19mo	$79,900	$77	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $11,230
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $50,528
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	0.22mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	43d	1	0.22mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	14d	10	0.29mi
4267 Tiffany Pl NE Unit 4267 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	43d	1	0.53mi
4329 Arnold St NE Unit 4329 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	43d	1	0.72mi
4325 Arnold St NE Unit 4325 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	23d	1	0.72mi
4323 Arnold St NE Unit 4323 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	23d	1	0.72mi
4327 Arnold St NE Unit 4327 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,550	$2.58	23d	1	0.72mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	14d	3	0.90mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	43d	1	0.96mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	43d	1	0.98mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	14d	3	0.99mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	14d	1	0.99mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	14d	1	0.99mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	14d	1	0.99mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	43d	1	0.99mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	14d	1	1.01mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	23d	1	1.01mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	23d	1	1.05mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	7d	1	1.05mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	1.07mi
1195 Clearview Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	43d	3	1.07mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	1.08mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	23d	1	1.08mi
3655 Pleasant View Dr NE Unit 3655-206 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	43d	1	1.09mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4034 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	43d	1	1.09mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4018 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	23d	1	1.09mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	14d	1	1.10mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	10d	11	1.10mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	23d	1	1.10mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	21d	1	1.12mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	1.12mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	14d	2	1.15mi
3960 Cherry Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,900	$2.12	14d	4	1.18mi
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	14d	5	1.19mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	23d	1	1.21mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	1d	2	1.23mi
1061 Ring St NE Unit 1061 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	43d	1	1.23mi
4261 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 218 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	43d	1	1.23mi
1031 Ring St NE Unit 1031 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	725	$1,180	$1.63	23d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2025-12-12
    listed $110,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Cozy and move-in ready! This charming 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find newer flooring, fresh paint, and a well-designed floor plan that’s ready for you to make it your own. Bring your style and creativity—this home is the perfect canvas to decorate and truly make yours. Conveniently located just minutes from I-5 and nearby shopping centers, this is a great opportunity for anyone seeking comfort, value, and an easy commute.

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $110,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Cozy and move-in ready! This charming 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find newer flooring, fresh paint, and a well-designed floor plan that’s ready for you to make it your own. Bring your style and creativity—this home is the perfect canvas to decorate and truly make yours. Conveniently located just minutes from I-5 and nearby shopping centers, this is a great opportunity for anyone seeking comfort, value, and an easy commute.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$894
• After-tax cash flow: $4,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $110,000 RMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $110,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2018): $187 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.