1913 Melody Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1960 4,300 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This delightful property is perfect as a starter home, rental, retirement retreat, or vacation getaway! You own the land, enjoy low property taxes, a low quarterly HOA fee, and there’s no need for flood insurance! Pets are allowed. There are two driveways, one in front and one in the back, plus a carport with access from a different street in the back. There is a block unattached in-law suite with a private entrance separate from the main house. The Beaches and Shopping destinations make it an appealing choice for those seeking a convenient and accessible lifestyle. Residents can enjoy the proximity to various shopping, dining, and entertainment options, as well as the nearby beaches

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Nearby beaches
• 4,300 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• ACCESS FROM A DIFFERENT STREET
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• NEARBY BEACHES
• MOVE-IN READY CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Total acreage: under 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association: Buena Vista Adventure Inc.); Monthly HOA $36.50 (quarterly fee $109.50); Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Detached carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank; No municipal water source listed; Electricity available and connected; Propane available; Phone available; Cable available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Completed condition; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as single wide
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Paved lot; In county

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Interior in-law suite with private entry
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 389 students, 90% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $140k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,429 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,320
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1909 Lullaby Dr	0.11mi	1/1.0	470 (+12%)	3mo	$68,500	$146	72
2110 Orange Dr	0.21mi	2/1.5 (+1)	460 (+10%)	1mo	$57,000	$124	67
2143 Orange Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	480 (+14%)	9mo	$71,500	$149	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,935
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,831
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
587 Dixie Hwy Unit Studio 1 Tarpon Springs, FL	—	1.0	214	$1,275	$5.96	4d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-16
   listed $140,000 Active
2. 2020-12-07
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$243/yr (+$20/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+102.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.