El Sueno Plan · Austin, TX 78617

$142,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Indulge in the ultimate comfort and space with the El Sueno. This premium manufactured home offers an unparalleled living experience. With 2,016 square feet, four bedrooms, and two bathrooms, the El Sueno is perfect for families of all sizes. Designed with sophistication in mind, this home boasts a spacious layout and high-end finishes. Experience the epitome of modern living in the heart of Austin, combined with the eco-friendly benefits of Clayton's eBuilt system. This innovative technology incorporates over 25 sustainable features without compromising on luxury or style.

Key facts

• Listed 71 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $714 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,415 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.39%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,010
• Equity at exit: $21,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $48,213
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78617

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $142,995

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,749
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12417 Sky Harbor Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,975	$1.25	24d	1	0.55mi
12604 Paloma Blanca Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,700	$1.19	16d	1	0.67mi
6200 Albany Sleigh Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,350	$1.43	43d	1	0.76mi
5032 Irvine Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,200	$0.88	21d	1	0.76mi
6316 Carriage Pines Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	2305	$2,300	$1.00	43d	1	0.80mi
6400 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.80mi
4917 Stockton Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2334	$2,400	$1.03	43d	1	0.81mi
6408 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	4.0	3.0	2497	$2,495	$1.00	43d	1	0.82mi
6409 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.0	1421	$1,895	$1.33	16d	1	0.82mi
6417 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,149	$0.96	43d	1	0.84mi
6417 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,100	$0.94	12d	1	0.84mi
6420 Carriage Pines Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,995	$1.20	43d	1	0.85mi
6521 Carriage Pines Dr Del Valle, TX	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,500	$1.01	24d	1	0.90mi
5204 Bahan Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2640	$1,900	$0.72	2d	1	0.94mi
13109 Lofton Cliff Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1917	$2,075	$1.08	12d	1	1.04mi
12821 Stoney Ridge Bnd Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	2281	$2,250	$0.99	17d	1	1.04mi
12316 Noel Bain Cv Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	2281	$2,100	$0.92	3d	1	1.09mi
13229 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,995	$1.17	12d	1	1.13mi
11800 Savanna Canyon Ct Del Valle, TX	4.0	3.0	2322	$2,050	$0.88	4d	1	1.21mi
13400 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,895	$1.17	3d	1	1.22mi
13400 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,895	$1.17	4d	1	1.22mi
7100 Dancing Wind Ln Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	1.34mi
5525 Victory Gallop Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,850	$1.03	43d	1	1.37mi
5521 Victory Gallop Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,000	$1.12	14d	1	1.37mi
5600 War Admiral Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2101	$2,200	$1.05	3d	1	1.39mi
7224 Spotted Leaf Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,950	$1.18	14d	1	1.41mi
7236 Dancing Wind Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	1566	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,995 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,995 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,995 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,995 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,995 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $142,995 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $142,995 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,995 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,995 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,995 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,995 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $142,995 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Indulge in the ultimate comfort and space with the El Sueno. This premium manufactured home offers an unparalleled living experience. With 2,016 square feet, four bedrooms, and two bathrooms, the El Sueno is perfect for families of all sizes. Designed with sophistication in mind, this home boasts a spacious layout and high-end finishes. Experience the epitome of modern living in the heart of Austin, combined with the eco-friendly benefits of Clayton's eBuilt system. This innovative technology incorporates over 25 sustainable features without compromising on luxury or style.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $6,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $6,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This El Sueno manufactured home in Austin, TX, is in good condition with minor repairs and maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout and high-end finishes, making it an excellent investment opportunity with high ROI potential.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear, minor touch-up needed.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Slight wear, minor replacement or touch-up needed.
• Minor Landscaping — Could benefit from some landscaping updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the home's appearance and can make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Replace worn-out fixtures in bathrooms — Upgrading dated fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall aesthetic, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear, minor touch-up needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Slight wear, minor replacement or touch-up needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Could benefit from some landscaping updates to enhance curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the home's appearance and can make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out fixtures in bathrooms — Upgrading dated fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall aesthetic, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,756
• Household income: $71,640
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 16% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.24%
• Current HPI: 192.3518
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $142,995 Zillow