111 Dogwood Cir · Sandy Creek, NC 28451

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1993 Fair condition 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice quiet country living within short drive from shopping, schools and parks on nice large lot

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Spacious lot
• Covered back porch

Tags

• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Raised foundation; Built on a 0.72-acre lot (approx. 130 x 262 x 127 x 225)
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes all living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: No basement; Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#478 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Town Creek Elementary (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 654 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.09%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Dogwood Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,151 (+11%)	1mo	$293,000	$255	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $28,052
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $72,887
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $810	-5% $775	+0% $741	+5% $707	+10% $673
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $670	+0% $741	+5% $812	+10% $884
Rate	-1.0pp $791	-0.5pp $766	base $741	+0.5pp $716	+1.0pp $689

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3660 Old Maco Rd NE Leland, NC	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	24d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $99,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    listed $99,000 Active
12. 2019-06-24
    soldstatus $94,600 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    Nice quiet country living within short drive from shopping, schools and parks on nice large lot

13. 2019-01-15
    listed $88,000 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    Nice quiet country living within short drive from shopping, schools and parks on nice large lot

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,781
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,868
• After-tax cash flow: $7,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations, including painting, landscaping, and siding repair, to improve its curb appeal and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major paint — Peeling and dull
• Minor porch carpet — Worn but not damaged

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both siding repair — Restores exterior appearance and increases property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling and dull	Major	$15,000–50,000
porch carpet · Worn but not damaged	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both siding repair — Restores exterior appearance and increases property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Sandy Creek

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #17453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sandy Creek, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1049.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $99,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-06-24 Sold (MLS) $94,600 Hive MLS
• 2019-01-15 Listed $88,000 Hive MLS