7807 Secretariat Ln · Houston, TX 77071

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1978 5,248 sqft lot $97/sqft · 39% below area Est $244k · 39% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

Key facts

• 5,248 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Tags

• ATTACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($351/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $150k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,760
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -38.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12338 Kitty Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-3%)	1mo	$149,900	$100	92
12410 Sea Biscuit Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+5%)	6mo	$160,000	$99	78
11807 S Ridgewood Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+2%)	1mo	$212,000	$136	69
15402 W Barbara Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+5%)	8mo	$234,900	$145	66
15426 W Ritter Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+6%)	3mo	$235,000	$144	62
11811 S Kathy Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-3%)	9mo	$285,000	$190	61
15218 E Hutchinson Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-5%)	4mo	$224,900	$154	56
11746 N Evelyn Cir	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-12%)	3mo	$205,000	$152	50
11726 N Willowdale Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,707 (+11%)	9mo	$249,950	$146	49
11823 S Evelyn Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+8%)	8mo	$235,000	$141	48
12431 Verde Glen Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-13%)	0mo	$160,000	$119	47
6405 Dawnridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,758 (+14%)	7mo	$229,900	$131	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.73% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,277
• Equity at exit: $38,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,305
• Equity at exit: $41,770

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77071

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,909/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $72	+0% $29	+5% $-13	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-37	+0% $29	+5% $95	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $67	base $29	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12404 Riva Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1679	$1,750	$1.04	44d	1	0.20mi
7842 Royan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,203	$1.05	0d	1	0.37mi
12211 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,239	$1.52	0d	21	0.38mi
6633 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1063	$1,200	$1.13	44d	2	0.40mi
6633 W Airport Blvd #902 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,200	$1.13	0d	1	0.41mi
14550 Fonmeadow Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,350	$1.28	44d	2	0.51mi
12261 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1066	$1,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.53mi
12463 Windy Wisp Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,795	$0.99	3d	1	0.56mi
12463 Windy Wisp Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,795	$0.99	0d	1	0.56mi
12247 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,895	$1.91	4d	1	0.57mi
12245 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,515	$1.21	44d	1	0.58mi
6392 Peacock Hills Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,400	$1.13	44d	1	0.67mi
6319 Southwood Ct N Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.81mi
6171 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	15d	1	0.88mi
7809 Wolfield Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,390	$1.15	44d	1	0.91mi
12214 Ormandy St Unit 12214 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1352	$1,200	$0.89	4d	1	0.94mi
12202 Ormandy St Unit 12202 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1352	$1,200	$0.89	4d	1	0.95mi
6038 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,755	$1.09	14d	1	0.95mi
8201 W Bellfort Ave Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,195	$0.99	0d	1	1.02mi
12500 Dunlap St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,220	$1.34	0d	60	1.03mi
6031 Cerritos Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,450	$1.10	44d	1	1.15mi
12800 Dunlap St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,199	$1.41	0d	63	1.16mi
12115 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,961	$1.07	44d	1	1.25mi
11418 Braewick Dr Unit 1514798P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$12,178	$6.12	22d	1	1.28mi
10919 Fondren Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	1.37mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$8,750	$4.06	22d	1	1.38mi
10919 Fondren Rd Unit 10952 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,345	$1.05	0d	1	1.39mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Unit 1019510P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2152	$14,236	$6.62	22d	1	1.40mi
5751 Firenza Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$5,750	$3.24	2d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    status Pending 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

13. 2026-04-30
    price $149,900 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

14. 2026-02-27
    status Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

15. 2026-02-27
    price $154,900 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

16. 2026-02-24
    historical 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

17. 2026-02-05
    price $169,900 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

18. 2025-12-19
    listed $189,900 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with attached two car garage. This home has ample space inside and out, there is also a storage building in the backyard.

19. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus
20. 2022-12-22
    soldstatus Sold 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Welcome to this newly renovated home with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a 2 car garage. New 30 year Roof installed October 2022. Quartz countertops all over the house. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Luxury vinyl planks water proof and scratch resistant all over the home. Soft closing cabinets and drawers in the kitchen. Utility room inside the home. In the garage you will find an extra storage room. The shed in the backyard conveys with the sale. Newly fixed driveway. AC from 2017 and Water heater from 2019. This home is perfect as a starter home or your forever home. Located within minutes to Beltway 8, Hwy 59 and 90. Call today for your private tour!

21. 2022-12-07
    status Pending 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Welcome to this newly renovated home with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a 2 car garage. New 30 year Roof installed October 2022. Quartz countertops all over the house. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Luxury vinyl planks water proof and scratch resistant all over the home. Soft closing cabinets and drawers in the kitchen. Utility room inside the home. In the garage you will find an extra storage room. The shed in the backyard conveys with the sale. Newly fixed driveway. AC from 2017 and Water heater from 2019. This home is perfect as a starter home or your forever home. Located within minutes to Beltway 8, Hwy 59 and 90. Call today for your private tour!

22. 2022-11-29
    status Option Pending 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Welcome to this newly renovated home with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a 2 car garage. New 30 year Roof installed October 2022. Quartz countertops all over the house. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Luxury vinyl planks water proof and scratch resistant all over the home. Soft closing cabinets and drawers in the kitchen. Utility room inside the home. In the garage you will find an extra storage room. The shed in the backyard conveys with the sale. Newly fixed driveway. AC from 2017 and Water heater from 2019. This home is perfect as a starter home or your forever home. Located within minutes to Beltway 8, Hwy 59 and 90. Call today for your private tour!

23. 2022-11-05
    listed $275,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Welcome to this newly renovated home with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a 2 car garage. New 30 year Roof installed October 2022. Quartz countertops all over the house. Ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Luxury vinyl planks water proof and scratch resistant all over the home. Soft closing cabinets and drawers in the kitchen. Utility room inside the home. In the garage you will find an extra storage room. The shed in the backyard conveys with the sale. Newly fixed driveway. AC from 2017 and Water heater from 2019. This home is perfect as a starter home or your forever home. Located within minutes to Beltway 8, Hwy 59 and 90. Call today for your private tour!

24. 2022-09-07
    soldstatus
25. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus
26. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,909 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,909 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$4,909
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$473
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,056
• Household income: $54,139
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1242.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 25% Vietnamese 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Current HPI: 250.0788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.51%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+241.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-05 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,909 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.