353 Willow Way · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$295,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 0.30 ac lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction in Germantown Schools - Quality, Location, and Value! This beautiful new home under construction in Woodscape of Oakfield offers the perfect combination of quality craftsmanship, thoughtful design, and an unbeatable price. Scheduled for completion June 1, 2026, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features inviting front and back porches, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the neighborhood. Inside, the home features a bright open floor plan where the kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room and dining area, creating a spacious layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen will feature stone countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a gas range, delivering

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• New construction
• Gas range

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $295,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,895.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-17/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,660 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,895
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 Willow Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-2%)	1mo	$288,000	$189	96
351 Willow Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	1mo	$309,900	$191	92
404 Butternut Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+10%)	1mo	$329,900	$193	80
214 Buttonwood Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+3%)	1mo	$305,000	$190	80
362 Willow Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+10%)	2mo	$294,999	$172	80
321 Buttonwood Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+10%)	2mo	$300,000	$175	72
125 Rhodes Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	1mo	$287,500	$177	71
421 Butternut Dr	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,712 (+10%)	2mo	$333,900	$195	70
151 Western Ridge Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+11%)	2mo	$305,000	$177	50
512 Portner Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+8%)	2mo	$304,999	$181	50
444 Baleigh Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+12%)	3mo	$314,999	$180	46
417 Aurora Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+13%)	2mo	$334,000	$190	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,599
• Equity at exit: $43,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,105
• Equity at exit: $25,411

Cash invested: $82,291 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,408/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $293,694

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $100	+0% $-1	+5% $-103	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-109	+0% $-1	+5% $106	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $73	base $-1	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,474
• Closing costs: $8,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 Willow Way Canton, MS	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.05mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	15d	1	0.14mi
231 Buttonwood Ln Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,700	$1.69	23d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $295,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,463
• − Property taxes: −$4,408
• − Insurance: −$2,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,550
• Taxable loss: −$4,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab

This new construction project lacks photos of the interior, exterior, and systems, indicating a major gut renovation is needed to make the home move-in ready and visually appealing.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — No roof photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.
• Major Interior — No interior photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.
• Major Systems — No system photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete interior and exterior finishes — Finishing the interior and exterior will make the home move-in ready and visually appealing.
• Both Install quality appliances and fixtures — Upgrading the appliances and fixtures will enhance the home's appeal and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · No roof photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior · No interior photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Systems · No system photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a new construction project.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete interior and exterior finishes — Finishing the interior and exterior will make the home move-in ready and visually appealing. ↑
• Both Install quality appliances and fixtures — Upgrading the appliances and fixtures will enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,160
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-14 Listed $295,500 MLSU