4432 Mt Carmel Tobasco Rd · Mount Carmel, OH 45244

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1934 0.26 ac lot $166/sqft · 21% below area Est $283k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

Key facts

• Cape cod style home
• Upgraded kitchen
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE HOME
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LVP FLOORING
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• QUARTZITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#583 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Clermont Local (suburban): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #373 of 656 in OH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 996 units permitted in Clermont County in 2024 (210 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $225k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $204,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,190
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -20.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4311 Fischer Ln	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,346 (-1%)	4mo	$135,000	$100	64
523 Jackie Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	11mo	$289,000	$204	64
4409 Mt Carmel Tobasco Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,277 (-6%)	22mo	$215,000	$168	64
4466 Hall St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,534 (+13%)	15mo	$200,000	$130	56
4438 Mt Carmel Tobasco Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,157 (-15%)	18mo	$173,000	$150	54
2528 Teuton Ct	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,533 (+13%)	2mo	$240,000	$157	51
2517 Teuton Ct	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,437 (+6%)	15mo	$225,000	$157	50
553 Brantner Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-15%)	11mo	$240,000	$207	43
4310 Mt Carmel Tobasco Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-14%)	8mo	$225,000	$193	38
549 Anna Mae Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,502 (+11%)	16mo	$275,000	$183	36
430 Glenrose Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-10%)	22mo	$232,000	$189	33
4572 Bells Ln	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,543 (+14%)	22mo	$179,000	$116	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,402
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,959
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45244

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,144/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4396 Todd Rose Ct Cincinnati, OH	4.0	3.5	1788	$2,650	$1.48	44d	1	0.40mi
4341 Value Spgs Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	1274	$2,000	$1.57	16d	1	0.74mi
4207 Edinburgh Dr Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,181	$1.60	2d	1	1.06mi
4380 Eastgate Blvd Unit AVA-401 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,575	$1.35	44d	1	1.12mi
4380 Eastgate Blvd Unit AVA-418 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	901	$1,600	$1.78	4d	1	1.12mi
618 Neptune Way Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.5	1559	$1,971	$1.26	2d	1	1.29mi
4100 Fox Run Trl Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,628	$1.63	2d	10	1.39mi
1745 Pinebluff Ln Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,096	$1.64	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    historical Contingency Pending 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

16. 2026-04-28
    status Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

17. 2026-04-23
    historical Contingency Pending 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $225,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

19. 2026-03-15
    listed $240,000 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Charming & Inviting Cape Cod Style Home In Super Convenient Location Close To Shops, Dining, Schools & Freeways. High Ceilings Throughout Main Level & LVP Flooring Flow From Large Family Room Into Formal Dining Room, Study/Rec Room & First Floor Primary w/ Oversized Walk-In Closet. Upgraded & Renovated Kitchen w/ Quartzite Countertops, New Cabinets, Eat In Breakfast Room & First Floor Laundry. Updated Bathroom w/ Tiled Shower. Second Floor Features 4 Additional Generously Sized Bedrooms (Two Without Closets). Many Replacement Windows On First Floor & Roof/Gutters Approx 6 Years Old. Detached Garage w/ Covered Patio, Fenced In Garden Area & Multiple Storage Sheds. Large Dry Basement w/ Second Laundry Room & Plenty Of Storage. Very Large Driveway w/ Plenty Of Space To Park Several Cars Around Back!

20. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $95,700
21. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $95,700 Sold 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Nice Home coming for public Auction on July 12th at 7:30 pm on location, 3 bed. 1 bath ( could have additional bedrooms available) partial basement, nice back yard fenced, detached garage, covered patio, Great starter home or empty nester or even a fantastic rental property. This home is ready to move in. min bid at auction is on the yard signs.

22. 2018-07-13
    historical Accept Backup Offers 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Nice Home coming for public Auction on July 12th at 7:30 pm on location, 3 bed. 1 bath ( could have additional bedrooms available) partial basement, nice back yard fenced, detached garage, covered patio, Great starter home or empty nester or even a fantastic rental property. This home is ready to move in. min bid at auction is on the yard signs.

23. 2018-06-11
    listed Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Nice Home coming for public Auction on July 12th at 7:30 pm on location, 3 bed. 1 bath ( could have additional bedrooms available) partial basement, nice back yard fenced, detached garage, covered patio, Great starter home or empty nester or even a fantastic rental property. This home is ready to move in. min bid at auction is on the yard signs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,827 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$683/yr (+$57/mo · 31.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,144
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $2,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Clermont Local
• NCES district ID: 3904635
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,436
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2402
• State rank: #373 of 656 in OH

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #9934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, OH
• County: Hamilton County · 701,295 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,511
• Household income: $109,287
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Clermont County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,162 people
• By 2030: 212,463 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 212,504 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 205,957 · -2.0%
• By 2075: 182,728 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 143,986 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clermont

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.8) · D 31.7% · R 67.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.8 2020: R+36.6 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+35.5 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.58%
• Current HPI: 229.2233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+135.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $225,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $240,000 Cincy MLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,700 Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (MLS) $95,700 Cincy MLS
• 2018-07-13 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2018-06-11 Listed — Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,144 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.