1200 Brickell Bay Dr #4308 · Miami, FL 33131

$470,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2005 $706/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL PENTHOUSE IN THE SKY! GREAT CITY AND BAY VIEW WITH AN OVERSIZED BALCONY! CHERRY WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, AND STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES! BUILDING OFFERS 2 POOLS, SAUNA, GYM, AND 24 HOUR CONCIERGE. PARTIAL WATER VIEW! WON'T LA ST LONG!! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Bank foreclosure. Sold in "as is" condition. To place an offer please click on the attachment link and send document with ALL offers. The form and list of requirements must be submitted with all offers.

Key facts

• Business center
• Valet service
• Fitness center

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• BAYFRONT POOL DECK
• FITNESS CENTER
• BUSINESS CENTER
• 24 HOUR CONCIERGE
• VALET SERVICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Heated association pool; Bay front waterfront with view
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities include billiard room, fitness center, hobby room, laundry, playground, pool, sauna, spa/hot tub, elevators, trash service, security, and reserve fund; Association covers amenities, cable TV, internet, laundry, parking, pools, recreation facilities, reserve fund, sewer, security, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking (1 space); 1-car garage
• Security: Key card entry; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Association provides water and sewer
• Home design: Attached property; 14 stories
• Construction: Block construction; Resale
• Exterior features: Balcony; Open balcony/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Blinds; Unfurnished; First floor entry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1007 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($463k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $470k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $382,342 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.09% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-93,416
• Equity at exit: $89,270

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-120,871
• Equity at exit: $74,381

Cash invested: $131,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33131

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1007
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,386 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax from tax record: −$594 /mo · $7,134/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$706
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$921
• Net cashflow: $-496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,014

Max offer price $382,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-363	+0% $-496	+5% $-629	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-843	-5% $-669	+0% $-496	+5% $-323	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-377	base $-496	+0.5pp $-618	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,500
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $706 · $8,472/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $470,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $470,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 691-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $470,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,134 · $594/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,134 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$7,134
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,210
• − Management: −$4,210
• − HOA: −$8,472
• − Depreciation: −$13,673
• Taxable loss: −$13,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #2724

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 827,308
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,095
• Household income: $144,138
• Rent vs Own: 63.0% rent · 37.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1866.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 35% White 33% Asian 4% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 8% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 54% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Current HPI: 281.1156
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $470,000 MARMLS
• 2023-10-31 Rental Removed $2,650 MARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Listed for Rent $2,650 MARMLS
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $156,900 Beaches MLS
• 2008-09-09 Listed $156,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-27 Sold (MLS) $440,000 MARMLS
• 2006-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,134 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.