4872 W Michigan Ave · Saginaw, MI 48638

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1978 6,534 sqft lot Est $305k · 49% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Oversized sunroom
• Walls of windows
• Exposed wood beams

Tags

• OVERSIZED SUNROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• WALLS OF WINDOWS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 29% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $127,604 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,406
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
846 Westchester Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,930 (-11%)	13mo	$273,000	$141	37
1095 Pius St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-7%)	22mo	$190,000	$95	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-22,399
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,134
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48638

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $155,000 947-char remark

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

3. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 947-char remark

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

4. 2026-04-28
   price $155,000

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

5. 2026-04-23
   listed $119,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

6. 2026-04-23
   listed $119,900 Active 947-char remark

   Show marketing remark (947 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath condo offering a functional layout and plenty of living space. The main floor features a large living room that flows seamlessly into the formal dining area, creating an open and inviting setting. The kitchen includes an eat-in area, perfect for casual meals and everyday convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom. A standout feature of this home is the oversized sunroom, complete with vaulted ceilings, exposed wood beams, and walls of windows and a glass door that bring in an abundance of natural light. The lower level adds even more versatility with a cozy family room, a third bedroom with egress window, a full bathroom, office space, and a dedicated laundry room. Outside, enjoy a small fenced-in yard for added privacy. A 1-car attached garage completes the package. This home features new carpet, A/C unit and a newer furnace. Schedule your private tour today!

7. 2012-08-15
   historical
8. 2012-02-15
   historical
9. 2011-08-15
   listed $129,900
10. 2011-08-15
    listed $129,900
11. 2011-04-19
    historical
12. 2010-04-19
    listed $129,900
13. 2007-01-21
    historical
14. 2005-07-19
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,705 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$682/yr (+$57/mo · 66.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$516
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw Township Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6094
• State rank: #265 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 12,668

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.44%
• Current HPI: 164.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-23 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-23 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-02-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-04-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-04-19 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-01-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-07-19 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,023 · -48.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.