3 Fordham Hill Oval Unit 5E · New York, NY 10468

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 29 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 1-bedroom, 1-updated bath co-op located in the desirable University Heights neighborhood. Updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Electricity and gas are included in the monthly association fee, offering added value and convenience. Residents enjoy a variety of building amenities including a gated community with security guards stationed at each entrance and regular ground patrols for added peace of mind. Additional features include a fully equipped gym, on-site laundry facilities, shared common areas & private green space, rooftop access with panoramic views, an on-site playground, and two parking garages nearby. The unit is conveniently located between the 4 train

Key facts

• Gated community
• Rooftop access
• Fully equipped gym

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SECURITY GUARDS
• FULLY EQUIPPED GYM
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• PRIVATE GREEN SPACE
• ROOFTOP ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Fordham Hill Oval Corp.; Community amenities include fitness center, gated entry, playground, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Con-Edison electric service; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Public trash collection; Public water available
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 5
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Pantry; Basement storage space; One total room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,095/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $751 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 59% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.74%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-31,198
• Equity at exit: $47,056

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,044
• Equity at exit: $59,684

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$1,242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,876

Max offer price $59,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-514	-5% $-565	+0% $-617	+5% $-668	+10% $-720
Rent	-10% $-782	-5% $-700	+0% $-617	+5% $-534	+10% $-451
Rate	-1.0pp $-542	-0.5pp $-579	base $-617	+0.5pp $-655	+1.0pp $-695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	22d	3	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectricgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $149,000 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − HOA: −$14,904
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$9,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid