3712 Porter Cir #35 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $142k · 37% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

Key facts

• Private outdoor area
• Move in ready
• Multiple marinas

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR AREA
• NEWLY INSTALLED HVAC SYSTEM
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• MULTIPLE MARINAS
• WATERFRONT RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Community laundry; Located in THE WILLOWS park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2+ spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide; Skyline model
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard; Front yard; Side yard; Fenced; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Utility room; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (hookups only)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.7% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.15%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,080
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
343 Alcott Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	4mo	$178,000	$171	74
343 Alcott Ct #175	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	10mo	$35,000	$34	69
312 Alcott Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	21mo	$145,000	$139	62
312 Alcott Ct #166	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	21mo	$145,000	$139	62
3605 Hawthorne Dr #114	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+15%)	8mo	$162,500	$148	59
3609 Hawthorne Dr #113	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	23mo	$150,000	$179	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $152,231
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $412,957
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $785	+0% $718	+5% $650	+10% $583
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $593	+0% $718	+5% $842	+10% $967
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $767	base $718	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $195,000
16. 2026-02-27
    price $199,000
17. 2026-02-08
    listed $210,000 Active
18. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

19. 2022-11-27
    status Pending 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

20. 2022-11-15
    status Back On Market 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

21. 2022-11-11
    status Pending - Show for Backups 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

22. 2022-10-11
    price $169,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

23. 2022-09-17
    price $179,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

24. 2022-09-09
    price $195,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

25. 2022-08-11
    listed $199,000 New 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home in the Heart of the Delta, close to Restaurants, Water Sports, Fishing, and Boating with over 1000 miles of waterways to explore! Home has been very well maintained with recently installed new carpets throughout, stainless steel appliances, laundry hookups, quaint porch to relax in the evenings. Come take a look it will not last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$6,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,028
• − Management: −$3,028
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $6,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $7,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-08 Listed $210,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-12-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-11-27 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-11-15 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-11-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-10-11 Price Changed $169,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-09-17 Price Changed $179,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-08-11 Listed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.