5844 Fordham Ave · Lawnton, PA 17111

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1994 3,049 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est. $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-story end-of-row townhouse at 5844 Fordham Ave. , Harrisburg — freshly updated and move-in ready. This bright home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, a newly renovated kitchen, new LVP flooring on the main level, fresh paint throughout, and new carpet upstairs and in the lower-level bedroom. Enjoy outdoor living on the large private deck off the back — perfect for grilling and entertaining. The flexible lower level bedroom adds versatility for guests, home office, or media space. Conveniently located in a friendly neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and major routes. Don’t miss this turnkey opportunity — schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• $56 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade finished area reported (480); Above-grade finished area reported (1,280)
• HOA & community: HOA dues $56 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Electric heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Built year reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backup; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Multiple access exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#685 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Dauphin East Shs (math 50% / reading 15%, grade F, #330 of 437 statewide, top 76%, 1,590 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,611 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,000
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5844 Fordham Ave	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$136	93
309 Lincoln Ave	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,738 (-1%)	11mo	$259,900	$150	84
191 Chartwood Dr	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,686 (-4%)	4mo	$235,000	$139	78
239 Chartwood Dr	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,686 (-4%)	6mo	$240,000	$142	77
121 Lincoln Ave	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+2%)	12mo	$220,000	$122	77
215 Chartwood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,682 (-4%)	12mo	$240,000	$143	76
257 Chartwood Dr	0.06mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,686 (-4%)	17mo	$225,100	$134	69
278 Chartwood Dr	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,976 (+12%)	10mo	$247,900	$125	61
6133 Terry Davis Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-7%)	3mo	$262,000	$160	61
304 Lincoln Ave	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,987 (+13%)	21mo	$209,900	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,061
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,051
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17111

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,657/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $245	+0% $180	+5% $115	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $92	+0% $180	+5% $268	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $238	base $180	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 N 62nd St Unit 1 Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,750	$1.31	14d	1	0.41mi
6226 Lehigh Ave Harrisburg, PA	4.0	4.0	2128	$2,975	$1.40	14d	1	0.55mi
6550 Somerset St Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,250	$1.51	14d	1	0.77mi
4810 Etta Rd Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	2118	$2,450	$1.16	14d	1	0.86mi
7214 Huntingdon St Harrisburg, PA	2.0	2.5	1374	$1,900	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
5069 Stacey Dr E Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,650	$1.75	14d	9	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical $229,900 690-char remark
2. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus $140,000
3. 2005-09-06
   soldstatus $116,975
4. 2003-02-06
   soldstatus $97,000
5. 1999-04-01
   soldstatus $91,000
6. 1994-05-02
   soldstatus $87,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,657 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,657
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$385
• After-tax cash flow: $2,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lawnton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #685
• US rank: #6718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawnton, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,744
• Household income: $86,385
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 22% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · India, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.67%
• Current HPI: 236.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+182.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $248,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Coming Soon $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $116,975 Public Records
• 2003-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,657 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.