4501 N Wilson Way #25 · Stockton, CA 95205

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition 2.92 ac lot $152/sqft · 49% above area Est $107k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome all to this rare beauty. What makes this home such a rare gem? It's located in a park with a space rent of $400/mo. ! Yes you heard that right, it's half the price of most mobile homes in the area. Best part is, it's an ALL AGE PARK. This home is a perfect starter for those who are looking for a home that's spacious enough for a small family, without breaking the bank. Built in 1990, this well-maintained residence offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across approximately 1,100 square feet of comfortable living space. The original owners have meticulously cared for this residence, ensuring it's move-in ready for its next occupants. This home comes with a brand new roof

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• 2.92 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $400 (listed as land lease amount); Land lease indicator: No
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1990
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Fleetwood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Backyard; Shed(s); Other lot features; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Hood over range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Porch; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rio Calaveras Elementary (838 students, 68% FRL); Cesar Chavez High (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 2,257 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.66%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,098
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 49.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4501 N Wilson Way #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	19mo	$112,000	$106	80
4900 N Highway 99 #97	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,047 (-1%)	18mo	$93,000	$89	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,973
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $52,840
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95205

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $603	+0% $547	+5% $492	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $465	+0% $547	+5% $630	+10% $713
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $588	base $547	+0.5pp $506	+1.0pp $464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4790 Winona Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,450	$1.65	25d	1	1.19mi
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit B Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.25mi
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit A Stockton, CA	3.0	3.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $5,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with a new roof and fresh paint. Minor repairs to the kitchen are needed, but the overall condition is good.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,608
• Household income: $60,325
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 21% White 9% Asian 6% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B