252 E 31st St · Erie, PA 16504

$126,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1927 3,920 sqft lot $96/sqft · 17% above area Est $115k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has hardwoods throughout, freshly painted kitchen, charming french doors allow you to close off the dining room and a great deck off the back! The second floor has a large primary bedroom, updates to bathroom with fresh paint, new light fixtures, vanity and bathroom vent! Front porch has been redone along with a brand new metal roof/gutters (Nov 2025) and hot water tank in 2022. Sump pump was added along with a french drain system! Offering a one year home warranty! Shared driveway with parking in the back.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Great deck
• French doors

Tags

• HARDWOODS THROUGHOUT
• FRENCH DOORS
• GREAT DECK
• PARTIALLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $877 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $127k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,479 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.98%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,613
• List price: $126,900
• Delta: 10.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 E 32 St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (+1%)	3mo	$75,201	$56	87
248 Maiden Ln	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,349 (+2%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	83
3216 French St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,220 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	68
239 E 25th St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,404 (+6%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	67
347 E 35th St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-11%)	2mo	$200,000	$170	60
361 E 35th St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-11%)	3mo	$181,000	$154	59
749 E 32nd St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (-4%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	57
3729 State St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	1mo	$241,000	$165	54
3831 Sassafras St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (+8%)	4mo	$250,000	$176	44
539 E 23rd St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,139 (-14%)	1mo	$28,000	$25	42
211 E 39th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (-14%)	2mo	$255,000	$225	39
3204 Wayne St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,123 (-15%)	4mo	$165,000	$147	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,497
• Equity at exit: $18,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $88,163
• Equity at exit: $10,972

Cash invested: $35,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$665
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,501/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $126,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,725
• Closing costs: $3,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	0.44mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	0.62mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	0.74mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This home has hardwoods throughout, freshly painted kitchen, charming french doors allow you to close off the dining room and a great deck off the back! The second floor has a large primary bedroom, updates to bathroom with fresh paint, new light fixtures, vanity and bathroom vent! Front porch has been redone along with a brand new metal roof/gutters (Nov 2025) and hot water tank in 2022. Sump pump was added along with a french drain system! Offering a one year home warranty! Shared driveway with parking in the back.

2. 2026-03-14
   price $126,900 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This home has hardwoods throughout, freshly painted kitchen, charming french doors allow you to close off the dining room and a great deck off the back! The second floor has a large primary bedroom, updates to bathroom with fresh paint, new light fixtures, vanity and bathroom vent! Front porch has been redone along with a brand new metal roof/gutters (Nov 2025) and hot water tank in 2022. Sump pump was added along with a french drain system! Offering a one year home warranty! Shared driveway with parking in the back.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $129,900 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This home has hardwoods throughout, freshly painted kitchen, charming french doors allow you to close off the dining room and a great deck off the back! The second floor has a large primary bedroom, updates to bathroom with fresh paint, new light fixtures, vanity and bathroom vent! Front porch has been redone along with a brand new metal roof/gutters (Nov 2025) and hot water tank in 2022. Sump pump was added along with a french drain system! Offering a one year home warranty! Shared driveway with parking in the back.

4. 2025-12-28
   price $129,900
5. 2025-12-28
   price $134,899
6. 2025-11-25
   price $134,900
7. 2025-11-17
   listed $140,000 Active
8. 2007-03-22
   soldstatus $67,000
9. 2002-06-04
   soldstatus $57,900
10. 1987-02-27
    soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,108
• − Property taxes: −$2,501
• − Insurance: −$634
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$3,692
• Taxable income: $7,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $7,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+330.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $126,900 GEBOR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $129,900 GEBOR
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $129,900 GEBOR
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $134,899 GEBOR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $134,900 GEBOR
• 2025-11-17 Listed $140,000 GEBOR
• 2007-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 1987-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,501 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.