21 Mapleview Dr · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1952 8,409 sqft lot Est $313k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS 3+ BDRM 2 BATH STORYBOOK RANCH IN THE TOWN OF AMHERST IS AN INCREDIBLE VALUE! SPACIOUS ROOMS, OPEN LIVING SPACE, 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND VERSATILITY! THE LARGE BEDROOM IN BACK IS NEWLY RENOVATED, AS WELL AS THE FULL BATH; POSSIBLE IN-LAW SUITE THAT HAS ITS OWN EXTERIOR ACCESS. OTHER ROOM IS LAUNDRY ROOM * ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED, NEW ROOF IN 2012, LARGE BACK DECK FOR ENTERTAINING. THIS GREAT HOME WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR LONG!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Resale property; Shake siding
• Construction: Shake siding construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 50 x 168)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $220k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,498 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 Springville Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-5%)	0mo	$322,040	$247	88
12 Delta Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,374 (0%)	4mo	$260,000	$189	78
62 Conant Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$215,000	$153	68
130 Stevenson Blvd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-10%)	1mo	$347,000	$282	66
1436 Eggert Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+0%)	2mo	$265,000	$192	65
133 Allenhurst Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+3%)	1mo	$332,800	$236	65
511 Capen Blvd	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (-8%)	1mo	$260,504	$207	64
50 Fairchild Dr	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,398 (+2%)	3mo	$340,000	$243	60
1789 Eggert Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,368 (-0%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	59
1425 Eggert Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-13%)	0mo	$165,000	$138	42
206 Lamont Dr	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-14%)	4mo	$300,000	$253	42
204 Lyndale Ave	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-14%)	1mo	$268,204	$228	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-34,587
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,799
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,200/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $192,498

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	1d	1	0.25mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.47mi
524 University Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,600	$0.87	1d	1	0.59mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	1d	1	1.08mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	1d	2	1.09mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	17d	1	1.11mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	14d	1	1.11mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	1.18mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	1.30mi
26 Custer St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	1.37mi
627 Kenmore Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	23d	1	1.38mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.41mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.41mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	11d	1	1.43mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	43d	1	1.43mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,200 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,200 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$6,200
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+213.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-07 Sold (MLS) $122,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-09-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-20 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $98,580 Public Records
• 2012-05-09 Sold (MLS) $98,580 WNYREIS
• 2011-09-26 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2004-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,103 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,200 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.