39443 Elgin Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1978 7,800 sqft lot Est $101k · 27% over $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

KITCHEN MAKE OVER: and so attractive! Including cabinets, counter tops, flooring, dishwasher, refrigerator and built in microwave all in 2008. CHA new in 2007, bathroom vanities new in 2005 and replacement fans and light fixtures. Home has family room with separate air, 3 storage sheds, screen room, carport and double roof. COMES MOSTLY FURNISHED. So many updates and so much for the price. Great park with low yearly fees that include water, clubhouse and activities. Pets welcome. Perfect for year round living or winter nest.

Key facts

• Built-in buffet
• No lot rent
• Low yearly hoa fee

Tags

• NO LOT RENT
• LOW YEARLY HOA FEE
• SIDE SCREENED PORCH
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• BUILT-IN BUFFET
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Lot is paved with dimensions 60 x 130 (0.18 acres); Living area and building area reported in public records
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly $29.17 / annual $350); Association approval required; Association fee includes water; Association amenities: clubhouse, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Community features: buyer approval required, clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Facing south; Entry includes a screened front porch
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Awning(s); Rain gutters; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $128k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,088
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39613 Sterling Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+4%)	3mo	$95,000	$106	78
39519 Rockford Ave	0.08mi	2/1.5 (-1)	844 (-2%)	11mo	$120,000	$142	76
39652 Elgin Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	10mo	$143,000	$149	62
39047 Hillcrest Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+4%)	8mo	$100,000	$112	58
39153 Hillcrest Dr	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	932 (+8%)	5mo	$70,000	$75	56
39401 Sycamore Ln	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-9%)	15mo	$92,000	$117	53
6246 Midland St	0.59mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	4mo	$101,000	$105	51
39115 Ola Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	1mo	$120,000	$125	43
39239 Longview Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-12%)	1mo	$127,000	$168	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,247
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,892
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	12d	1	0.37mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	12d	1	0.38mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	0.39mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.41mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	24d	1	0.42mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	0.51mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.58mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.60mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	0.60mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	0.61mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.63mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.79mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.80mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	20d	1	0.94mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.08mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	1.09mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.15mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.16mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	1.18mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.23mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.24mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	24d	1	1.27mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.27mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.30mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.37mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $128,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    status Active
15. 2026-03-25
    price $128,000
16. 2026-03-22
    historical
17. 2025-09-26
    listed $137,000 Active
18. 2011-03-01
    soldstatus $52,000
19. 2011-02-25
    soldstatus $52,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    KITCHEN MAKE OVER: and so attractive! Including cabinets, counter tops, flooring, dishwasher, refrigerator and built in microwave all in 2008. CHA new in 2007, bathroom vanities new in 2005 and replacement fans and light fixtures. Home has family room with separate air, 3 storage sheds, screen room, carport and double roof. COMES MOSTLY FURNISHED. So many updates and so much for the price. Great park with low yearly fees that include water, clubhouse and activities. Pets welcome. Perfect for year round living or winter nest.

20. 2010-05-11
    listed $54,900 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    KITCHEN MAKE OVER: and so attractive! Including cabinets, counter tops, flooring, dishwasher, refrigerator and built in microwave all in 2008. CHA new in 2007, bathroom vanities new in 2005 and replacement fans and light fixtures. Home has family room with separate air, 3 storage sheds, screen room, carport and double roof. COMES MOSTLY FURNISHED. So many updates and so much for the price. Great park with low yearly fees that include water, clubhouse and activities. Pets welcome. Perfect for year round living or winter nest.

21. 2004-03-03
    soldstatus $35,000
22. 1996-03-06
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $1,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+326.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-25 Sold (MLS) $52,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-11 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,418 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.