16 Birch Ln · Bloomingburg, NY 12721

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $67/sqft · 14% above area Est $87k · 14% over $1025/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-full-bathroom home beautifully situated within the welcoming Whispering Pines Mobile Home community in the Pine Bush School District. The location is incredibly convenient, situated just 5 minutes from Interstate 86 and a short 15-minute drive from the business district of the City of Middletown. In the other direction, a 15-minute drive takes you to the hamlet of Pine Bush, featuring a variety of local eateries, shopping boutiques, Crawford Town Park, and all grade-level schools. Additionally, this home is located within 30 minutes to several major attractions including the Kartrite Water Park, Resorts World Catskills casino, and Legoland, and is near

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.6% in Bloomingburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,175 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, housing D+, schools F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.

Recommended offer $98,499 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.87%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,483
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: 14.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Birch Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	8mo	$85,000	$57	92
3 Pine Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	2mo	$96,700	$64	79
74 Pine Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	4mo	$115,000	$71	79
24 Birch Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,291 (-14%)	16mo	$57,500	$45	60
117 White Birch Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	2mo	$86,000	$64	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $11,021
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $46,515
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12721

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$1,025
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $451	+0% $417	+5% $382	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $310	+0% $417	+5% $524	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $442	base $417	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 North Rd Bloomingburg, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	19d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,025 · $12,300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $99,999 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $99,999 Active
3. 2026-04-22
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$12,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $3,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, including painting, updating bathrooms and kitchen, and landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — The interior walls and ceilings show some wear and tear.
• Minor Bathroom Fixtures — The bathrooms have dated fixtures and color schemes.
• Minor Kitchen Appliances — The kitchen has dated cabinetry and appliances.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping is maintained but could be improved for curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the bathrooms with new fixtures and color schemes — Modernizing the bathrooms can significantly improve the home's value.
• Both Updating the kitchen with new cabinetry and appliances — A modern kitchen can greatly enhance the home's value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and overall value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · The interior walls and ceilings show some wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom Fixtures · The bathrooms have dated fixtures and color schemes.	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen Appliances · The kitchen has dated cabinetry and appliances.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is maintained but could be improved for curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the bathrooms with new fixtures and color schemes — Modernizing the bathrooms can significantly improve the home's value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen with new cabinetry and appliances — A modern kitchen can greatly enhance the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and overall value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bloomingburg

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1175
• US rank: #25817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,590

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scandinavian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 320.383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $99,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid