3129 & 3133 Sherman Dr · Breckenridge Hills, MO 63074

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1955 6,534 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Duplex for sale. Unit 3129, has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and is vacant. The second unit (3113) is tenant occupied.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential income (2-4 units); Above-grade finished area reported as 1,600 (source: public records); Lot size approximately 0.15 acres (source: public records)
• Financial info: No second mortgage reported; One of two units currently leased
• HOA & community: Information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Duplex; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built year not provided
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Information not provided
• Bathrooms: Information not provided
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 1×2bd/?ba units multifamily listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $405/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#193 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,582/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 782% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.27%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,789
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3205 Buder Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,408 (-12%)	12mo	$176,500	$125	63
3213 Buder Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,408 (-12%)	20mo	$199,900	$142	55
3532 Wright Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	20mo	$189,900	$132	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $23,762
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $99,604
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63074

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,865/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $917	-5% $863	+0% $809	+5% $756	+10% $702
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $707	+0% $809	+5% $911	+10% $1,013
Rate	-1.0pp $905	-0.5pp $858	base $809	+0.5pp $760	+1.0pp $710

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,291
1× unit	2	—	$1,291
Total (2 units)			$2,582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3213 Airway Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	0.55mi
3209 Dix Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,550	$1.38	24d	1	0.80mi
9807 Guthrie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,700	$1.59	24d	1	1.20mi
9457 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,530	$1.04	22d	1	1.24mi
4204 Beauty Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1299	$1,690	$1.30	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $189,900 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    listed $189,900 Active 109-char remark
14. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus $403,750
15. 2004-03-04
    soldstatus $95,300
16. 1994-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,865
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $7,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,692
• After-tax cash flow: $8,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ritenour
• NCES district ID: 2926640
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,410
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9125
• State rank: #304 of 324 in MO

Livability — Breckenridge Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #10013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breckenridge Hills, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,793
• Household income: $51,610
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.89%
• Current HPI: 210.6588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.14%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $403,750 Public Records
• 2004-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $95,300 Public Records
• 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,865 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.