Residence 4 Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$595,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,221 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite
• Spa-inspired bath

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMPLE STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $595,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $733,597.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (47.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$126k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,817 (47.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.23%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $733,597
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: -18.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4121 Peak Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,293 (+3%)	0mo	$700,000	$305	81
12425 Kibbie Lake Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,246 (+1%)	1mo	$712,000	$317	64
3950 Aura Way	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,547 (+15%)	1mo	$615,000	$241	62
12271 Greenfinch Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,084 (-6%)	2mo	$549,690	$264	57
12021 Tiresias Way	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,365 (+6%)	2mo	$628,888	$266	56
4327 Orpheus Cir	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,365 (+6%)	0mo	$650,000	$275	51
12402 Alamosa Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (-6%)	1mo	$667,369	$319	50
4263 Orpheus Cir	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,365 (+6%)	1mo	$636,400	$269	49
12390 Alamosa Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,080 (-6%)	2mo	$630,145	$303	48
4195 Dovekie Ct	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,399 (+8%)	1mo	$745,000	$311	47
4179 Dovekie Ct	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,399 (+8%)	2mo	$768,280	$320	47
12270 Greenfinch Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,007 (-10%)	2mo	$530,227	$264	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $230,722
• Equity at exit: $660,883

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $804,485
• Equity at exit: $1,425,218

Cash invested: $205,407 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,847
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$917 /mo · $11,004/yr
• Insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-2,606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,417

Max offer price $356,451

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,099	-5% $-2,353	+0% $-2,606	+5% $-2,860	+10% $-3,113
Rent	-10% $-2,853	-5% $-2,730	+0% $-2,606	+5% $-2,483	+10% $-2,360
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,237	-0.5pp $-2,420	base $-2,606	+0.5pp $-2,796	+1.0pp $-2,990

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $183,399
• Closing costs: $22,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	0.30mi
4013 Trento Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,225	$1.36	18d	1	0.57mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	0.57mi
11925 Cobblebrook Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2786	$3,595	$1.29	45d	1	0.64mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.89mi
11795 Corino Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,880	$1.44	0d	1	1.13mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	12d	1	1.14mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	13d	1	1.22mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	0d	1	1.24mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	23d	1	1.24mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	0d	1	1.25mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	25d	1	1.28mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	45d	1	1.28mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	1.29mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	4d	1	1.31mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	9d	1	1.34mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.35mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	1.44mi
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $595,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $595,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $595,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $595,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $595,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $595,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $595,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2025-12-04
    listed $595,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Residence Four: A spacious two-story home offering flexible living with an optional fourth bedroom or den. . Highlights include a large great room, dedicated laundry room, and a luxurious primary suite with a walk-in closet and spa-inspired bath. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,093
• − Property taxes: −$11,004
• − Insurance: −$3,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,993
• − Management: −$2,993
• − Depreciation: −$21,341
• Taxable loss: −$45,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $595,000 Zillow