803 W Main St · Odessa, MO 64076

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot Est $194k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Built-in garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Composition roof; Approximately 51-75 years old
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 11,238 square feet; Not in a flood plain; Directions: west on main st to address

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Raised ranch floor plan; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 S 3rd St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	15mo	$200,000	$192	48
945 W Dryden St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+11%)	14mo	$220,000	$196	48
704 W Mcdowell St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+10%)	14mo	$200,000	$181	43
321 S 1st St	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (+7%)	20mo	$120,000	$112	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,130
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $22,407
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64076

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 W Mason St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	24d	1	0.28mi
603 W Mason St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	3d	1	0.28mi
603 W Mason St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	20d	1	0.28mi
601 W Mason St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	24d	1	0.28mi
604 W Mason St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	24d	1	0.30mi
214 W Orchard St Unit 2 Odessa, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$800	$0.87	20d	1	0.60mi
411 E Benning St Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	44d	1	1.10mi
511 Pine Dr Clay Township, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	15d	1	1.13mi
511 Pine Dr Clay Township, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	24d	1	1.13mi
511 Pine Dr Clay Township, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	4d	1	1.13mi
510 Pine Dr Clay Township, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	24d	1	1.13mi
508 Pine Dr Clay Township, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	44d	1	1.13mi
501 S Johnson Dr Odessa, MO	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,595	$1.11	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $140,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $3,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2923100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,736
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4932
• State rank: #123 of 324 in MO

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Danish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.23%
• Current HPI: 255.8581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $140,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.