DAWSON Plan · Boyd, TX 76023

$279,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson is a spacious two-story home offering approximately 2129 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a game room, and a 2-car garage, providing flexibility for growing or multi-generational households. A welcoming front porch and foyer open into an inviting first-floor layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow together seamlessly to create a bright, open gathering space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer convenient accommodations for guests or a private home office, while the primary living spaces remain open and connected. Upstairs, the private primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bathroom, creating a comfortable retreat. Three additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged around a large game room, offering space for relaxation, play, or media use. A dedicated laundry area and ample storage throughout the home add everyday convenience. With its versatile layout, modern features, and efficient use of space, the Dawson delivers comfort, functionality, and value in a well-designed two-story home. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 174 days

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#185 in TX, #4,775 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #462 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boyd El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 478 students, 57% FRL); Boyd Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 202 students, 48% FRL); Boyd H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 386 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,442 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,800
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -8.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 Birch Forest Ln	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	2mo	$281,990	$132	90
113 Pine Hurts Dr	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	1mo	$276,990	$130	87
266 Birch Forest Ln	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,138 (+0%)	2mo	$280,990	$131	86
124 Orchard Pines Pl	0.18mi	5/2.0	2,133 (+0%)	2mo	$325,000	$152	86
160 Lilywood Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	2mo	$304,990	$146	75
192 Mojave Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	3mo	$314,110	$151	72
199 Bay Meadows Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,294 (+8%)	2mo	$344,990	$150	62
138 Mojave Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	2mo	$331,990	$140	61
121 Pinehurst Dr	0.25mi	5/2.0	1,818 (-15%)	1mo	$267,990	$147	59
250 Birch Forest Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-15%)	2mo	$269,990	$149	55
192 Greennhill Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-14%)	2mo	$316,990	$172	46
215 Greenhill Trl	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-14%)	4mo	$309,990	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-66,155
• Equity at exit: $45,596

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-78,887
• Equity at exit: $26,440

Cash invested: $85,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,990 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 175 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76023

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,604
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,587/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $268,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-156	+0% $-261	+5% $-367	+10% $-473
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-354	+0% $-261	+5% $-169	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-183	base $-261	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,450
• Closing costs: $9,174
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Greengate Dr Boyd, TX	4.0	2.5	2084	$2,495	$1.20	59d	1	0.10mi
113 Orchard Pines Pl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,345	$1.28	2d	1	0.17mi
113 Orchard Pines Pl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	2252	$2,345	$1.04	4d	1	0.17mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,150	$1.35	51d	1	0.21mi
175 Bay Meadows LN Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,190	$1.37	28d	1	0.26mi
129 Blossom Trl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	0.30mi
209 Bay Meadows Ln Boyd, TX	4.0	2.5	2079	$2,195	$1.06	42d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,990 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,990 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,990 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,990 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,990 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $279,990 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $279,990 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $279,990 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 128 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,130
• − Property taxes: −$4,587
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$8,896
• Taxable loss: −$8,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready single-family home in Boyd, TX, offers a spacious two-story layout with 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, perfect for growing or multi-generational families. The home's excellent condition and curb appeal make it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Boyd El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Boyd Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Boyd H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,462
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5796
• State rank: #462 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Boyd

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #4775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise · 71,620 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,192
• Household income: $80,927
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.08%
• Current HPI: 268.5024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $275,990 Zillow