DAWSON Plan · Boyd, TX 76023

$279,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson is a spacious two-story home offering approximately 2129 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a game room, and a 2-car garage, providing flexibility for growing or multi-generational households. A welcoming front porch and foyer open into an inviting first-floor layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow together seamlessly to create a bright, open gathering space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer convenient accommodations for guests or a private home office, while the primary living spaces remain open and connected. Upstairs, the private primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bathroom, creating a comfortable retreat. Three additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged around a large game room, offering space for relaxation, play, or media use. A dedicated laundry area and ample storage throughout the home add everyday convenience. With its versatile layout, modern features, and efficient use of space, the Dawson delivers comfort, functionality, and value in a well-designed two-story home. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, avai

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 127 days

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,750.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#185 in TX, #4,775 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #462 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boyd El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 478 students, 57% FRL); Boyd Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 202 students, 48% FRL); Boyd H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 386 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,342 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,750
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -8.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Birch Forest Ln	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,138 (+0%)	0mo	$280,990	$131	88
124 Orchard Pines Pl	0.18mi	5/2.0	2,133 (+0%)	0mo	$325,000	$152	87
160 Lilywood Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	0mo	$304,990	$146	76
192 Mojave Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (-2%)	2mo	$314,110	$151	73
195 Greenhill Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,219 (+4%)	3mo	$319,990	$144	65
138 Mojave Rd	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	1mo	$331,990	$140	63
250 Birch Forest Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-15%)	1mo	$269,990	$149	56
204 Mojave Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,367 (+11%)	3mo	$331,635	$140	56
109 Daffodil Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-14%)	2mo	$305,990	$166	50
192 Greennhill Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-14%)	1mo	$316,990	$172	48
203 Greenhill Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-14%)	3mo	$309,990	$169	46
215 Greenhill Trl	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-14%)	2mo	$309,990	$169	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-63,155
• Equity at exit: $45,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-72,419
• Equity at exit: $26,436

Cash invested: $85,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76023

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,586/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $274,746

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-109	+0% $-214	+5% $-320	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-309	+0% $-214	+5% $-119	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-136	base $-214	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,438
• Closing costs: $9,173
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Greengate Dr Boyd, TX	4.0	2.5	2084	$2,495	$1.20	12d	1	0.10mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,150	$1.35	3d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,990 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    listed $275,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Dawson is a spacious two-story home offering approximately 2129 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a game room, and a 2-car garage, providing flexibility for growing or multi-generational households. A welcoming front porch and foyer open into an inviting first-floor layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow together seamlessly to create a bright, open gathering space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet storage, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer convenient accommodations for guests or a private home office, while the primary living spaces remain open and connected. Upstairs, the private primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a walk-in closet, and an ensuite bathroom, creating a comfortable retreat. Three additional bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged around a large game room, offering space for relaxation, play, or media use. A dedicated laundry area and ample storage throughout the home add everyday convenience. With its versatile layout, modern features, and efficient use of space, the Dawson delivers comfort, functionality, and value in a well-designed two-story home. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, avai

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,127
• − Property taxes: −$4,586
• − Insurance: −$1,529
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,307
• − Management: −$2,307
• − Depreciation: −$8,895
• Taxable loss: −$7,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $-673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready single-family home in Boyd, TX, offers a spacious two-story layout with 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, perfect for growing or multi-generational families. The home's excellent condition and curb appeal make it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,462
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5796
• State rank: #462 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boyd

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #4775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,192

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.08%
• Current HPI: 268.5024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $275,990 Zillow