638 Sleepy Hollow Rd · Sleepy Hollow Lake, NY 12015

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 0.60 ac lot $205/sqft · 34% below area Est $450k · 34% under $192/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A single family, ranch style home with 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with approximately 1,363 square feet of living space and an unfinished basement. Built in 1975. One car garage attached/under. Needs some work, but great opportunity. Fair Condition

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Double lot
• Lake access

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• LAKE ACCESS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• YEAR-ROUND RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SFR
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (approx. $2,300); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, park, playground, boating, fishing, beach access and beach rights

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; 200+ Amp electric service; Underground electric and utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Asphalt roof; Built in prior years (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.6 acres; Gated community with lake, beach access and community amenities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Pellet stove
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator; Full, partially finished basement; Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Sleepy Hollow Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $299k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $449,966
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -33.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Lisa Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	16mo	$335,000	$222	65
19 Lisa Ln #1211	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	16mo	$335,000	$222	65
776 Sleepy Hollow Rd Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,520 (+4%)	21mo	$360,000	$237	53
888 Sleepy Hollow Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-7%)	13mo	$270,000	$200	48
901 Sleepy Hollow Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	21mo	$345,000	$225	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $104,850
• Equity at exit: $186,542

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $293,677
• Equity at exit: $337,064

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12015

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,859

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1321 Sleepy Hollow RD Other City - Not In The State Of Florida, NY	3.0	2.0	1640	$3,250	$1.98	44d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $299,000 Active 609-char remark
3. 2018-04-17
   soldstatus $95,634 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   A single family, ranch style home with 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with approximately 1,363 square feet of living space and an unfinished basement. Built in 1975. One car garage attached/under. Needs some work, but great opportunity. Fair Condition

4. 2018-02-26
   listed $101,200 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   A single family, ranch style home with 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with approximately 1,363 square feet of living space and an unfinished basement. Built in 1975. One car garage attached/under. Needs some work, but great opportunity. Fair Condition

5. 2009-03-21
   historical
6. 2008-09-22
   listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,120
• − Management: −$3,120
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$233
• After-tax cash flow: $3,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, but has a good roof and foundation. The location offers a great opportunity for a weekend retreat or investment.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Outdated and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Older and dated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Older and dated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sleepy Hollow Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sleepy Hollow Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,084

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 426.3034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-04-17 Sold (MLS) $95,634 Global MLS
• 2018-02-26 Listed $101,200 Global MLS
• 2009-03-21 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2008-09-22 Listed $165,000 Global MLS