121 Julian Way · Lake Lure, NC 28746

$256,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 442 Days on market

Built 1990 1.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Home has had significant updates! New flooring, updated cabinets and countertops. Enjoy fishing at the creek or sitting on your private porch and listen to the creek sounds while entertaining family and friends. Lots of space for camping, glamping right on your own property. Close to Lake Lure, Black Mountain, Asheville and Marion! Just 14 miles to I-40. Great get away home or starter home. Some of this property is in a flood plain. Flood maps can be accessed on FEMA.gov

Key facts

• Home stayed dry
• Great location
• Close to black mtn

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO LAKE LURE
• CLOSE TO MARION
• CLOSE TO BLACK MTN
• HOME STAYED DRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,395 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $101,447
• Equity at exit: $208,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $308,500
• Equity at exit: $429,306

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28746

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $207,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-203	+0% $-275	+5% $-348	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-343	+0% $-275	+5% $-207	+10% $-140
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-210	base $-275	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-14
   price $256,000
3. 2025-11-13
   price $257,000
4. 2025-11-13
   price $256,000
5. 2025-09-30
   price $259,000
6. 2025-09-15
   price $265,000
7. 2025-08-23
   price $267,000
8. 2025-08-04
   price $271,000
9. 2025-07-21
   price $272,000
10. 2025-06-23
    price $273,000
11. 2025-04-19
    price $277,000
12. 2025-02-15
    price $282,000
13. 2025-01-06
    listed $287,000 Active
14. 2022-04-28
    soldstatus $230,000
15. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Home has had significant updates! New flooring, updated cabinets and countertops. Enjoy fishing at the creek or sitting on your private porch and listen to the creek sounds while entertaining family and friends. Lots of space for camping, glamping right on your own property. Close to Lake Lure, Black Mountain, Asheville and Marion! Just 14 miles to I-40. Great get away home or starter home. Some of this property is in a flood plain. Flood maps can be accessed on FEMA.gov

16. 2022-04-04
    historical Active Under Contract 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Home has had significant updates! New flooring, updated cabinets and countertops. Enjoy fishing at the creek or sitting on your private porch and listen to the creek sounds while entertaining family and friends. Lots of space for camping, glamping right on your own property. Close to Lake Lure, Black Mountain, Asheville and Marion! Just 14 miles to I-40. Great get away home or starter home. Some of this property is in a flood plain. Flood maps can be accessed on FEMA.gov

17. 2022-03-28
    listed $220,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Home has had significant updates! New flooring, updated cabinets and countertops. Enjoy fishing at the creek or sitting on your private porch and listen to the creek sounds while entertaining family and friends. Lots of space for camping, glamping right on your own property. Close to Lake Lure, Black Mountain, Asheville and Marion! Just 14 miles to I-40. Great get away home or starter home. Some of this property is in a flood plain. Flood maps can be accessed on FEMA.gov

18. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $45,000 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Mature landscaping provides privacy.

19. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $45,000 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Mature landscaping provides privacy.

20. 2014-06-23
    historical 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Mature landscaping provides privacy.

21. 2014-05-29
    listed $52,500 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Country setting on level site with home and outbuildings and frontage along Cedar Creek. Mature landscaping provides privacy.

22. 2007-07-06
    soldstatus $128,000
23. 2006-04-19
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$737/yr (+$61/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$2,078
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$7,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lake Lure

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #13888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rutherford County · 2,744 people
• City population: 2,744
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 2,744
• Household income: $70,469
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 34.0

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Current HPI: 351.5648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+143.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $256,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $257,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $256,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $259,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $265,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $267,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $271,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $272,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $273,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $277,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $282,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $287,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $230,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Listed $220,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NCMMLS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-23 Delisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-29 Listed $52,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.