45825 Old Carney Rd · Bay Minette, AL 36507

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1928 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Grab this cute and cottage before it's gone! Whether you are looking for a great starter home, investment (rental) property or just to downsize, this is the one! Situated on a beautiful 1/2 acre lot outside the city limits, this home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, an open kitchen with breakfast room, vinyl siding for easy maintenance, closed in sunroom and more! Easy to show! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Closed in sunroom
• 1/2 acre lot
• Breakfast room

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• VINYL SIDING
• CLOSED IN SUNROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community amenities; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; North Baldwin Utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Whole/full ownership; Built on assessor-recorded 1,206 square feet
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Less than 1 acre lot; Few trees; Metes and bounds description; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Breakfast area off the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the 1st floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Internet access
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in Bay Minette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#179 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bay Minette Elementary School (math 20% / reading 47%, grade F, #318 of 627 statewide, top 51%, 796 students, 74% FRL); Bay Minette Middle School (math 11% / reading 40%, grade F, #158 of 257 statewide, top 63%, 435 students, 78% FRL); Baldwin County High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #140 of 305 statewide, top 46%, 1,039 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 38% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $120k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.72%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-374
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,087
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36507

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $334	+0% $300	+5% $266	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $249	+0% $300	+5% $351	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $330	base $300	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-19
   listed $119,900 Active
8. 2016-10-05
   soldstatus $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$412
• After-tax cash flow: $3,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bay Minette

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #15153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,350

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.62%
• Current HPI: 329.316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+54.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $119,900 BCAR
• 2016-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $542 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.