5435 W Fetlock Trl · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$535,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2011 6,226 sqft lot Est $525k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly sought-after Stetson Valley community, 5435 W Fetlock Trail delivers the combination buyers rarely find in this price range - single-story living, true 4BR functionality, exceptional mountain views from every angle, and a pristine turnkey interior. Enjoy stunning views of Pyramid Peak & Deem Hills from the front and wide-open Ludden Mountain views from the backyard w/ no neighbors behind for outstanding privacy and an incredible backdrop. Inside, the open split-bedroom floor plan offers ideal functionality with the spacious primary suite separated from 3 secondary bedrooms, including a convenient Jack-and-Jill bath accessible from both the hall & one of the

Key facts

• 6,226 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2011

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $325 quarterly fee that includes grounds maintenance; Community playground; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access, garage door opener and attached garage cabinets
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Fee simple single-family residence
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile and concrete roof
• Exterior features: Front and rear sprinklers with automatic timers; Desert front landscaping; Synthetic grass in back; Gazebo; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps (single level interior); Separate shower and tub; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-980 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (43.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sonoran Foothills School (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A-, #55 of 1,109 statewide, top 5%, 860 students, 15% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,703 (43.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $525,255
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5435 W Fetlock Trl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,805 (0%)	0mo	$525,000	$291	96
5511 W Desperado Way	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,794 (-1%)	1mo	$510,000	$284	90
5435 W Quail Track Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-1%)	6mo	$655,000	$365	79
26704 N 55th Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (+0%)	3mo	$565,000	$312	68
5512 W Cavedale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (+0%)	12mo	$495,000	$273	64
5253 W Maya Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (+6%)	1mo	$645,000	$337	63
26937 N 52nd Gln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (-7%)	2mo	$550,000	$327	62
5455 W Bajada Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-13%)	1mo	$534,000	$339	60
5126 W Bajada Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,978 (+10%)	3mo	$555,000	$281	55
5339 W Chisum Trl	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,883 (+4%)	6mo	$365,000	$194	46
5130 W Molly Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (+11%)	11mo	$570,000	$285	44
26408 N 53rd Gln	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,661 (-8%)	11mo	$407,000	$245	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $226,679
• Equity at exit: $481,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $712,064
• Equity at exit: $1,039,387

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,257

Max offer price $361,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-677	-5% $-828	+0% $-980	+5% $-1,131	+10% $-1,283
Rent	-10% $-1,218	-5% $-1,099	+0% $-980	+5% $-860	+10% $-741
Rate	-1.0pp $-710	-0.5pp $-844	base $-980	+0.5pp $-1,118	+1.0pp $-1,259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5511 W Desperado Way Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,695	$1.50	1d	1	0.06mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	14d	1	0.06mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.09mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	3d	1	0.10mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	0.13mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	9d	1	0.34mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	20d	1	0.35mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	18d	1	0.37mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	26d	1	0.39mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	26d	1	0.41mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	9d	1	0.46mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	9d	1	0.47mi
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	1d	1	0.71mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	4d	1	0.83mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	16d	1	1.09mi
6458 W Blue Sky Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,095	$0.94	16d	1	1.30mi
6427 W Silver Sage Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,390	$1.03	12d	1	1.35mi
6427 W Silver Sage Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,415	$1.04	22d	1	1.35mi
6418 W Mark Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2201	$3,250	$1.48	45d	1	1.45mi
6326 W El Cortez Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2579	$3,450	$1.34	4d	1	1.46mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	23d	1	1.47mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	12d	1	1.47mi
6539 W Jomax Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2526	$2,495	$0.99	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $535,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $535,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $535,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $535,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $535,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   status $535,000 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $535,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $535,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   listed $535,000 Active
10. 2007-12-21
    soldstatus $21,739,323

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,531 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,896
• − Management: −$2,896
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$21,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $525,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $535,000 ARMLS
• 2007-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $21,739,323 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,719 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.