4600 Bagby Ave · Waco, TX 76711

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1952 0.38 ac lot Est $178k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location for this longtime family home. Homes needs some TLC. Oversized lot with additional parking in front and side of home. Spacious backyard with a cfast. overed patio and deck. Sit in the shade and enjoy being able to get anywhere in Waco.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Additional parking
• Covered patio

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• ADDITIONAL PARKING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kendrick El (math 15% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 482 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.67%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4600 Bagby Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$91	94
4009 James Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-4%)	1mo	$149,900	$142	71
4013 James Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,055 (-4%)	5mo	$120,000	$114	64
4520 Rolando Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-7%)	8mo	$175,000	$172	63
3808 James Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	1mo	$199,900	$198	54
5011 Beverly Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,145 (+4%)	2mo	$209,900	$183	54
1704 Lexington St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (-14%)	3mo	$99,900	$106	54
2209 Lee St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-4%)	5mo	$169,900	$162	52
1413 Shelburne St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	4mo	$199,900	$164	50
3917 Charlton Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+12%)	5mo	$237,000	$193	46
1216 Holly Vista St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-14%)	8mo	$75,000	$79	43
4013 Shelby St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	941 (-14%)	2mo	$88,000	$94	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $37,897
• Equity at exit: $48,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $97,999
• Equity at exit: $76,863

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76711

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Creekview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,094	$2.12	13d	20	0.28mi
4900 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,650	$1.61	20d	1	0.32mi
5210 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,695	$1.67	13d	12	0.41mi
4009 James Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	20d	1	0.49mi
2500 Marketplace Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,560	$1.69	13d	10	0.59mi
3717 Charlton Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$1,195	$1.37	43d	1	0.77mi
828 Horseshoe Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,750	$1.44	20d	1	0.81mi
4000 Acree St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	984	$1,295	$1.32	20d	1	0.87mi
3812 Hiland Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$995	$0.89	13d	1	0.92mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	13d	15	0.97mi
700 S Valley Mills Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$995	$1.17	13d	2	1.18mi
3200 Belmont Dr Unit 3228 Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	1.25mi
3447 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,350	$1.49	13d	1	1.29mi
3430 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	1.32mi
3411 Pewitt Dr #3413 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	20d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,676
• Household income: $53,185
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 43% White 23% Black 12% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 261.7166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $100,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,870 · +44.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.