2277 State 84 · Barclay, MN 56474

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1991 1.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, two bathroom Pine river home on 1.24 acres. You will enjoy the large yard, nice size master bedroom, built-ins around the wood burning fireplace, and more! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Private bath
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• USABLE LAND
• QUICK ACCESS TO TOWN AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not fractional ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One-level home; Manufactured home
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Built on a foundation (foundation area ~1,872); Above-grade finished area approximately 1,872
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Level topography; Lot roughly 1.24 acres (approximately 164 x 330)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with window
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on one level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor laundry; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($96/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pine River-Backus School District (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #250 of 301 in MN (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,595 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-21,433
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-18,273
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56474

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$526/yr (+$44/mo · 114.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River-Backus School District
• NCES district ID: 2728970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,909
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6239
• State rank: #250 of 301 in MN

Livability — Barclay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,471

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.61%
• Current HPI: 244.0289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+53.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 2022-11-11 Sold (MLS) $152,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-26 Price Changed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-13 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-13 Price Changed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Coming Soon $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $84,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Price Changed $80,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Price Changed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-26 Listed $80,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-26 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-02 Listed $87,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.