6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #87 · Stockton, CA 95210

$157,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $131/sqft · 22% above area Est $128k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and updated double-wide mobile home located in the desirable The Pines 55+ mobile home community, conveniently close to shopping, dining, Kaiser, and everyday amenities. This home offers comfortable living with numerous upgrades and thoughtful features throughout. Recent improvements include a new composition shingle roof installed May 2024 with a 30-year warranty, new carpet in several bedrooms and new flooring in the living room. The custom kitchen features a new stainless steel sink and a skylight that brings in natural light. Both bathrooms have been updated and the primary bathroom includes dual shower heads with a built-in bench. This energy efficient home inclu

Key facts

• Built-in bench
• Dual shower heads
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• NEW COMPOSITION SHINGLE ROOF
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL SINK
• DUAL SHOWER HEADS
• BUILT-IN BENCH
• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $157k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,290 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.69%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,324
• List price: $157,000
• Delta: 22.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #87	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$148,000	$123	100
6706 Tam O Shanter #49	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,223 (+2%)	11mo	$155,000	$127	84
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #41	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	14mo	$145,000	$126	76
6706 Tam O Shanter #34	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$36,000	$27	73
6706 Tam O Shanter #101	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-1%)	21mo	$147,000	$124	72
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #131	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	11mo	$84,500	$80	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $17,670
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $98,954
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $592	+0% $538	+5% $484	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $457	+0% $538	+5% $619	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $578	base $538	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	45d	1	0.15mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,655	$1.81	19d	1	0.46mi
764 E Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	11d	1	0.46mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-05 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	3d	1	0.46mi
826 Astor Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	24d	1	0.59mi
7936 Montauban Ave Unit Labs Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	11d	1	0.59mi
201 Vincente Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1464	$3,500	$2.39	44d	1	0.63mi
307 Goya Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	808	$1,395	$1.73	44d	1	0.64mi
718 Bedlow Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	44d	1	0.67mi
718 Bedlow Dr Unit 720 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	929	$1,250	$1.35	3d	1	0.67mi
5337 Barbados Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,300	$1.76	22d	1	0.67mi
6807 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,750	$1.79	24d	1	0.75mi
7409 Village Green Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,000	$1.75	44d	1	0.75mi
1031 Fallbrook Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,695	$1.76	44d	1	0.76mi
218 E Longview Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,350	$1.66	15d	1	0.80mi
7926 Diana Marie Dr Unit 7926 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	3d	1	0.83mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	3d	1	0.86mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	15d	1	0.86mi
5324 Holiday Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	3d	3	0.89mi
2047 Deauville Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1126	$2,500	$2.22	3d	1	0.92mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	19d	1	0.93mi
705 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	3d	1	0.93mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-07 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,695	$1.80	19d	1	0.93mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	24d	1	0.93mi
326 Sue Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1153	$2,495	$2.16	22d	1	0.93mi
6032 Cresenda Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$2,500	$2.58	22d	1	0.95mi
613 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,695	$2.08	3d	3	0.95mi
7620 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,775	$2.15	44d	1	1.00mi
221 Quincy St Unit 1-45 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	3d	1	1.03mi
310 Felton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	3d	1	1.05mi
230 W Pearl Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	3.0	1196	$3,050	$2.55	19d	1	1.14mi
422 Felton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,695	$1.83	44d	1	1.14mi
451 Marengo Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	15d	1	1.23mi
531 Glendora Ave Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	620	$1,600	$2.58	3d	7	1.26mi
9211 Dalewood St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	898	$1,495	$1.66	3d	1	1.27mi
1768 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	44d	1	1.29mi
706 Edan Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1008	$2,500	$2.48	15d	1	1.30mi
4790 Winona Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,450	$1.65	24d	1	1.31mi
8125 Kiltie Way Unit 8125 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	19d	1	1.32mi
8446 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	44d	1	1.39mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $4,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $5,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated double-wide mobile home in The Pines 55+ community offers comfortable living with numerous upgrades and thoughtful features throughout. Recent improvements include a new roof and flooring, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet and flooring — Improves comfort and aesthetics
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet and flooring — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B