1468 Grand Ave #9 · San Leandro, CA 94577

$97,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 429 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition Est $109k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated and move-in ready, this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath park model home with a spacious loft offers comfortable, efficient living in a well-maintained mobile home community. Thoughtfully upgraded throughout, the home features a beautifully appointed kitchen with a gas stove, modern finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The open living area creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, while the loft provides flexible space ideal for storage, guests, or a home office. Conveniently located for commuters, this home offers easy access to nearby freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. A great opportunity for low-maintenance living in a desirable park set

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Open living area
• Gas stove

Tags

• BEAUTIFULLY APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a non-senior community; Address: 1468 Grand Ave #9, San Leandro, CA 94577 (unit located closest to the street/near park exit)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source but treated as not applicable)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: other; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (park model); Original condition; Built in 2022; Skirting: wood and fiberglass
• Construction: Skirted with wood and fiberglass
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit(s) for cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Stone counter in the kitchen; Dual-pane full windows; Porch steps; Unfurnished; Washer/dryer stacked included (inside unit); Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included inside the unit; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Leandro Unified (urban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #831 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $95,545 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.25%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,966
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1468 Grand Ave #40	0.00mi	1/1.0	393 (-8%)	10mo	$99,950	$254	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $31,395
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $81,865
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94577

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $97,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,455
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $8,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $7,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for low-maintenance living in a desirable park setting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Leandro Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634680
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,377
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #10252
• State rank: #831 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Leandro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #9768

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leandro, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 88,086
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,317
• Household income: $108,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2005.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 31% Asian 28% White 23% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 23% Chinese 10% Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -867.55%
• Current HPI: 265.2446
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.74%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B