4394 Farm Market 2869 · Hawkins, TX 75765

$171,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This space offers endless possibilities with backyard space for days to make your own peaceful retreat! The home offers a simple way of living just outside of town while feeling like you have enough space to catch your breath! Enjoy some great fishing within a short drive from this property along with small town living & amazing lake beaches! Call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• Backyard space
• Lake beaches
• Built 2020

Tags

• BACKYARD SPACE
• LAKE BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,429 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.77%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $46,586
• Equity at exit: $78,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $129,831
• Equity at exit: $121,292

Cash invested: $48,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$215 /mo · $2,578/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $171,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $451	+0% $392	+5% $333	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $313	+0% $392	+5% $471	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $436	base $392	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,975
• Closing costs: $5,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
230 Private Road 7422 Unit 7422 Hawkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $171,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $171,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-02-27
   listed $171,900 Active 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   This space offers endless possibilities with backyard space for days to make your own peaceful retreat! The home offers a simple way of living just outside of town while feeling like you have enough space to catch your breath! Enjoy some great fishing within a short drive from this property along with small town living & amazing lake beaches! Call today for your private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,629
• − Property taxes: −$2,578
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,001
• Taxable income: $2,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $4,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Adding a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can attract renters looking for a peaceful retreat.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can attract renters looking for a peaceful retreat. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawkins

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $171,900 GTAR