11 Donald Jarboe Ln · Hardinsburg, KY 40152

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 0 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1987 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Covered carport
• Large living areas

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE LIVING AREAS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $82,428 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
197 Cannons Point Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,080	10mo	$174,000	$84	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,374
• Equity at exit: $65,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $58,354
• Equity at exit: $108,622

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40152

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $104,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-79	+0% $-114	+5% $-150	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-147	+0% $-114	+5% $-82	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-83	base $-114	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2025-05-23
   soldstatus $84,800 Closed 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

2. 2025-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

3. 2025-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

4. 2025-04-29
   price $125,000

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

5. 2025-04-29
   price $125,000 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

6. 2025-04-21
   price $140,000

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

7. 2025-04-21
   price $140,000 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

8. 2025-03-20
   listed $165,000 Active
9. 2025-03-19
   listed $165,000 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Discover your perfect retreat near Rough River Lake! This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers spacious comfort with two large living areas, providing plenty of room to relax or entertain. Enjoy the convenience of a covered carport and the perks of Walmart delivery right to your doorstep. Located just minutes from outdoor recreation (Rough River), this home is ideal for year-round living or a weekend getaway. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

10. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus $132,900 Closed 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

11. 2024-02-22
    status Pending 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

12. 2024-02-14
    historical Active Under Contract 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

13. 2024-01-10
    price $140,000 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

14. 2023-11-21
    price $145,000 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

15. 2023-09-21
    listed $150,000 Active 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

16. 2023-09-21
    price $150,000 1131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1131 chars)

    This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch offers a comfortable and inviting living space, along with a range of desirable features that make it a move-in ready property. The interior boasts laminate flooring throughout, creating a stylish and low-maintenance environment that is perfect for relaxation and easy upkeep. One of the highlights of this property is the charming sunroom, featuring stunning pine ceilings that infuse the space with a rustic, cabin-like feel. The larger bedroom includes a convenient walk-in closet & laundry room, providing plenty of storage space for your wardrobe and belongings. Step outside and discover a generous carport, providing covered parking for your vehicles and additional storage options. Adjacent to the carport, you'll find a storage shed, perfect for housing tools, outdoor equipment, and more. Situated just minutes away from a boat ramp, a local hardware store, and convenient stores, this home provides a short drive and easy access to daily amenities. Whether you are a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment, this property checks all the boxes.

17. 2017-12-15
    historical
18. 2017-06-15
    listed $79,000
19. 2012-02-26
    historical
20. 2011-08-29
    listed $69,000
21. 2008-09-17
    historical
22. 2008-03-17
    listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$380/yr (+$32/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$791
• − Management: −$791
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $-496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardinsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #12568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Danish 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Current HPI: 246.6101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+123.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) $84,800 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $125,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $140,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $140,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $165,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $132,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-22 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-14 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $140,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-12-15 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-06-15 Listed $79,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-02-26 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2011-08-29 Listed $69,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-09-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2008-03-17 Listed $38,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2017): $695 · +56.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.