1338 Sears St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1884 0.60 ac lot Est $69k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and full of updates! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features updated windows, flooring, paint, bathroom, and siding, giving the home a fresh modern feel throughout. Spacious layout with plenty of potential for a homeowner or investor alike. Call today for your personal showing.

Key facts

• Updated siding
• Updated windows
• Updated paint

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED PAINT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial amenities provided
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot zoned for residential use; Lot dimensions approximately 49 x 61; Lot size about 0.6 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: No flooring information provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $40k implies a 1230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.12%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
996 Athens Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	936 (+2%)	2mo	$70,000	$75	61
514 N 8th St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,058 (+15%)	8mo	$17,000	$16	55
2422 Snelling Pl	0.74mi	3/1.0	988 (+7%)	1mo	$97,084	$98	52
228 N 3rd Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (+11%)	3mo	$47,500	$46	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $36,893
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.87×
• Total profit: $87,965
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $318/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $319

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $44,900 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of updates! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features updated windows, flooring, paint, bathroom, and siding, giving the home a fresh modern feel throughout. Spacious layout with plenty of potential for a homeowner or investor alike. Call today for your personal showing.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $44,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of updates! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features updated windows, flooring, paint, bathroom, and siding, giving the home a fresh modern feel throughout. Spacious layout with plenty of potential for a homeowner or investor alike. Call today for your personal showing.

19. 2024-04-10
    historical $850
20. 2024-01-18
    listed $850
21. 2024-01-01
    historical $850
22. 2023-10-21
    listed $850
23. 2012-01-13
    historical 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a Homepath Property and Available for Homepath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Three Bedroom Bungalow, Close To Downtown Services and Transportation. Large Living Room, Vinyl Siding

24. 2011-11-21
    listed $3,500 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a Homepath Property and Available for Homepath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Three Bedroom Bungalow, Close To Downtown Services and Transportation. Large Living Room, Vinyl Siding

25. 2011-11-21
    listed $3,500

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a Homepath Property and Available for Homepath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Three Bedroom Bungalow, Close To Downtown Services and Transportation. Large Living Room, Vinyl Siding

26. 2011-01-12
    soldstatus $3,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a Homepath Property and Available for Homepath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Three Bedroom Bungalow, Close To Downtown Services and Transportation. Large Living Room, Vinyl Siding

27. 2011-01-12
    soldstatus $3,000

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    This is a Homepath Property and Available for Homepath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Three Bedroom Bungalow, Close To Downtown Services and Transportation. Large Living Room, Vinyl Siding

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $318 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$318
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $6,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1396.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-18 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-01 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-21 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2012-01-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-11-21 Listed $3,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-11-21 Listed $3,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-01-12 Sold (MLS) $3,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-12 Sold (MLS) $3,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $318 · -56.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.