12254 Trail Hollow Dr · Conroe, TX 77356

$167,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1978 2,873 sqft lot $115/sqft · 12% below area Est $190k · 12% under $188/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner-lot townhome in Walden on Lake Conroe! This charming 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers low-maintenance living in a desirable lake and golf course community. Inside, you’ll find an inviting living room with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, granite kitchen countertops, updated hardware, and a spacious patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Both bedrooms are upstairs for added privacy, and two private parking spaces are located right in front of the home. Enjoy the Walden on Lake Conroe lifestyle with access to community amenities including the pool and gym, all while being surrounded by the beauty and recreation of Lake Conroe. Ideal as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or lock-and-leave getaway.

Key facts

• Corner-lot
• Updated hardware
• Spacious patio

Tags

• CORNER-LOT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED HARDWARE
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• PRIVATE PARKING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($93/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,980 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,577
• List price: $167,000
• Delta: -11.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11621 Redbird Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (-5%)	15mo	$296,000	$215	62
11819 Doretta Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,606 (+11%)	4mo	$244,900	$152	57
12415 Brightwood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,640 (+13%)	6mo	$239,000	$146	44
11830 Cranberry Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+11%)	24mo	$390,000	$241	41
3418 Nottingham Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (+12%)	8mo	$260,000	$160	35
12610 Brightwood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,643 (+13%)	17mo	$278,000	$169	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-31,596
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-46,279
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,141/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $55	+0% $8	+5% $-40	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-62	+0% $8	+5% $78	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $50	base $8	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	17d	1	0.02mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	45d	1	0.12mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	45d	1	0.12mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	45d	2	0.15mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	7d	1	0.98mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	24d	1	0.99mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	20d	1	1.26mi
801 River Rd Unit 116 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,350	$1.39	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $167,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-04-04
    listed $167,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Corner-lot townhome in Walden on Lake Conroe! This charming 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers low-maintenance living in a desirable lake and golf course community. Inside, you’ll find an inviting living room with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, granite kitchen countertops, updated hardware, and a spacious patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Both bedrooms are upstairs for added privacy, and two private parking spaces are located right in front of the home. Enjoy the Walden on Lake Conroe lifestyle with access to community amenities including the pool and gym, all while being surrounded by the beauty and recreation of Lake Conroe. Ideal as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or lock-and-leave getaway.

13. 2020-12-07
    soldstatus
14. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus Sold 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom - 2.5 bath Townhome on corner lot in Lake Conroe's Golf Course Community. Large and inviting family room with wood burning fire place with mantel. All bedrooms are up and have ceiling fans. Beautiful granite in the kitchen with nice hardware. Large patio with water view to lake Conroe. Two private parking spaces in front of home. The Clubhouse, Courtesy Patrol, Exterior Building, Grounds and Recreational Facilities are taken care of and included in the Maintenance fee. A great place to live or make it an awesome weekend get away.

15. 2020-11-18
    status Pending 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom - 2.5 bath Townhome on corner lot in Lake Conroe's Golf Course Community. Large and inviting family room with wood burning fire place with mantel. All bedrooms are up and have ceiling fans. Beautiful granite in the kitchen with nice hardware. Large patio with water view to lake Conroe. Two private parking spaces in front of home. The Clubhouse, Courtesy Patrol, Exterior Building, Grounds and Recreational Facilities are taken care of and included in the Maintenance fee. A great place to live or make it an awesome weekend get away.

16. 2020-10-30
    status Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom - 2.5 bath Townhome on corner lot in Lake Conroe's Golf Course Community. Large and inviting family room with wood burning fire place with mantel. All bedrooms are up and have ceiling fans. Beautiful granite in the kitchen with nice hardware. Large patio with water view to lake Conroe. Two private parking spaces in front of home. The Clubhouse, Courtesy Patrol, Exterior Building, Grounds and Recreational Facilities are taken care of and included in the Maintenance fee. A great place to live or make it an awesome weekend get away.

17. 2020-10-27
    status Option Pending 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom - 2.5 bath Townhome on corner lot in Lake Conroe's Golf Course Community. Large and inviting family room with wood burning fire place with mantel. All bedrooms are up and have ceiling fans. Beautiful granite in the kitchen with nice hardware. Large patio with water view to lake Conroe. Two private parking spaces in front of home. The Clubhouse, Courtesy Patrol, Exterior Building, Grounds and Recreational Facilities are taken care of and included in the Maintenance fee. A great place to live or make it an awesome weekend get away.

18. 2020-10-12
    listed $135,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom - 2.5 bath Townhome on corner lot in Lake Conroe's Golf Course Community. Large and inviting family room with wood burning fire place with mantel. All bedrooms are up and have ceiling fans. Beautiful granite in the kitchen with nice hardware. Large patio with water view to lake Conroe. Two private parking spaces in front of home. The Clubhouse, Courtesy Patrol, Exterior Building, Grounds and Recreational Facilities are taken care of and included in the Maintenance fee. A great place to live or make it an awesome weekend get away.

19. 2018-12-12
    soldstatus
20. 2018-12-10
    soldstatus
21. 2018-12-06
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2018-12-06
    status Pending
23. 2018-11-30
    status Option Pending
24. 2018-11-27
    price $110,000
25. 2018-10-17
    status Active
26. 2018-10-05
    status Pending
27. 2018-09-24
    status Option Pending
28. 2018-09-17
    price $114,950
29. 2018-09-04
    status Active
30. 2018-08-29
    status Option Pending
31. 2018-08-01
    price $119,000
32. 2018-06-26
    listed $124,700 Active
33. 2018-04-06
    soldstatus
34. 2006-06-23
    historical
35. 2006-06-15
    listed $79,950
36. 2004-06-03
    soldstatus
37. 1996-05-20
    soldstatus
38. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,141 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,141 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$3,141
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$2,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-12 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-27 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-17 Price Changed $114,950 HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-01 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Listed $124,700 HARMLS
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-06-15 Listed $79,950 HARMLS
• 2004-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,141 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.