13544 Bay Springs Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$215,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $227k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $211,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Idlewood plan; New construction (spec)
• Exterior features: 1,418 living area

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 34% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,621 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13514 Bay Springs Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$227,990	$161	97
13510 Bay Springs Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$223,990	$159	96
1551 Sunset Ridge Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	4mo	$232,990	$164	93
1618 Winwood Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	8mo	$231,990	$164	91
1607 Winwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	9mo	$225,990	$160	88
13302 Rayhill Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	7mo	$236,990	$167	88
13314 Rayhill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	8mo	$224,990	$159	88
13518 Bay Springs Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$216,990	$170	80
13515 Bay Springs Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	2mo	$241,990	$151	69
9553 Last Maples Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-3%)	3mo	$219,000	$159	66
1603 Winwood Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	8mo	$240,990	$150	62
14381 High Hill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+15%)	4mo	$199,000	$122	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-42,172
• Equity at exit: $32,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-60,331
• Equity at exit: $18,675

Cash invested: $60,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,240/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $212,379

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $50	+0% $-25	+5% $-100	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-101	+0% $-25	+5% $51	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $30	base $-25	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,998
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	45d	1	0.92mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$1,855	$1.16	0d	14	0.99mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $215,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $211,990 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $211,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 636-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $211,990 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $211,990 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $211,990 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $211,990 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $211,990 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $211,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $211,990 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 597-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $211,990 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $211,990 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $211,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$3,240
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,283
• Taxable loss: −$3,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B