18 Olga Pl · Buffalo, NY 14206

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot Est $73k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a one-family home located on a quiet street near Downtown Buffalo and Larkin District. This property features many updates throughout, including a tiled kitchen and bathroom, some hardwood floors, newer carpeting, and several updated windows. The home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, kitchen, full bathroom, three bedrooms with closets, and a convenient laundry room. Outside, the property is fully fenced and includes a storage shed for additional space. The house need some work, making it a great opportunity for an investor or owner-occupant looking to purchase at an affordable price and complete improvements over time. Great potential with solid upsid

Key facts

• Tiled kitchen
• Fully fenced
• Updated windows

Tags

• TILED KITCHEN
• TILED BATHROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWER CARPETING
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• FULLY FENCED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Existing construction (year built not specified)
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring styles
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $70k implies a 1065% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.56%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,150
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Lord St	0.44mi	2/1.0	879 (-8%)	1mo	$163,000	$185	66
703 Smith St	0.22mi	3/— (+1)	1,064 (+12%)	4mo	$43,000	$40	61
511 William St	0.63mi	2/1.5	990 (+4%)	2mo	$205,000	$207	60
58 Thomas St	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,074 (+13%)	18mo	$83,000	$77	53
18 Paderewski Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+14%)	17mo	$65,000	$60	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $60,775
• Equity at exit: $53,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $152,697
• Equity at exit: $106,230

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $152/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $517

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Detroit St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	43d	1	0.34mi
118 Detroit St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	23d	1	0.34mi
674 Clinton St Unit 6 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	14d	1	0.48mi
950 Broadway Unit 307 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	675	$940	$1.39	3d	1	0.77mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.04mi
141 Vandalia St Unit Lower back Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	43d	1	1.40mi
141 Elm St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0–1.5	1089	$1,500	$1.38	3d	1	1.48mi
230 Scott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,325	$1.81	1d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $152 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 338.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$152
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $4,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1065.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $118,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-09 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 1996-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $152 · +171.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.