11915 Old Halls Ferry Rd · Black Jack, MO 63033

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 Good condition 0.30 ac lot $94/sqft · 24% below area Est $263k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Freshly painted, some new flooring. Open floor plan, huge back yard for BBQ’S. Seller has never occupied property . New furnace and hot water heater. Property being sold in it’s current as-is condition .

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New furnace
• New hot water heater

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW DECK
• HUGE BACK YARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.8% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commons Lane Elementary (291 students, 99% FRL); Cross Keys Middle (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 391 statewide, top 97%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,921
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -42.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4348 Vandals Dr	0.27mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-2%)	2mo	$245,000	$158	77
19 Bridekirk Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,624 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$135	76
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,525 (-4%)	4mo	$229,900	$151	72
4497 Rhine Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,525 (-4%)	2mo	$163,000	$107	71
2390 Grassland Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,653 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$160	69
2325 Grassland Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-4%)	5mo	$239,000	$157	60
11731 Branridge Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (+2%)	2mo	$200,000	$123	57
11962 Nero Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	4mo	$220,000	$153	56
35 Wild Ridge/hazeltine	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	4mo	$317,742	$197	54
4451 Rhine Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-10%)	4mo	$165,000	$116	52
4303 Caracalla Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$141	50
11433 Tobaggon Trl	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,666 (+5%)	2mo	$214,900	$129	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $135,387
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.26×
• Total profit: $388,489
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,900 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $730	+0% $687	+5% $645	+10% $603
Rent	-10% $521	-5% $604	+0% $687	+5% $770	+10% $853
Rate	-1.0pp $763	-0.5pp $726	base $687	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4732 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1624	$2,370	$1.46	0d	1	0.08mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	97d	1	0.21mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,440	$1.18	0d	16	0.30mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	113d	1	0.35mi
4973 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,330	$1.82	69d	1	0.35mi
11560 Old Halls Ferry Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	1.0	1423	$1,850	$1.30	56d	1	0.35mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,526	$0.80	9d	1	0.36mi
11610 Helenoak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,621	$1.42	68d	1	0.43mi
11910 Brampton Hunt Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1579	$2,205	$1.40	3d	1	0.64mi
11718 Branridge Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,941	$1.25	40d	1	0.72mi
11251 Old Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,346	$0.88	58d	1	0.73mi
5353 Branridge Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,721	$1.03	9d	1	0.84mi
6 Van Crest Ln Florissant, MO	4.0	2.0	1349	$1,851	$1.37	6d	1	0.87mi
12558 Evening Shade Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,666	$1.42	42d	1	0.92mi
12536 Early Morning Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,985	$1.54	9d	1	0.98mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	42d	1	1.13mi
1835 Ardmore Dr Florissant, MO	4.0	3.0	1693	$2,200	$1.30	64d	1	1.13mi
12040 Maidstone Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,831	$1.24	42d	1	1.15mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	88d	1	1.21mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	117d	1	1.22mi
1525 Aintree Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,931	$1.37	4d	1	1.26mi
13011 Mystic Bend Ln Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,295	$1.40	64d	1	1.27mi
2536 Nathan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,350	$1.29	82d	1	1.32mi
5 Whitney Cir Florissant, MO	4.0	2.5	1705	$1,865	$1.09	88d	1	1.38mi
1495 Tremont Dr Florissant, MO	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,700	$1.15	40d	1	1.40mi
3145 Parker Rd Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,111	$1.26	10d	1	1.41mi
1935 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,095	$1.42	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    status $159,900 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $159,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM
17. 2026-03-11
    price $169,900
18. 2026-02-21
    listed $179,900 Active
19. 2026-02-15
    historical
20. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus $90,000
21. 2018-02-05
    price $59,900
22. 2017-12-09
    price $64,900
23. 2013-10-18
    soldstatus $28,000
24. 2013-10-16
    soldstatus
25. 2012-11-26
    listed $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $6,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,485
• After-tax cash flow: $6,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,935–$23,805 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with fresh paint and new HVAC. It has a good exterior and interior, and the fresh paint and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring tile Counters laminate Appliances white HVAC central · new lt5

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fan — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 12/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Commons Lane Elementary Middle Cross Keys Middle F MO #379/391 Nat'l #13,619/14,009 High Mccluer North High F MO #487/521 Nat'l #15,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 1,025,227 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-05 Price Changed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-09 Price Changed $64,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-26 Listed $34,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,498 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.