1515 Blair Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$475,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1890 5,140 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

Key facts

• 5,140 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $991 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $496/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $446k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,537/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $351k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $446,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-16,478
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $56,258
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$694 /mo · $8,332/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,163
• Net cashflow: $991

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,283

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 77%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$5,538
Total (2 units)			$5,537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $475,000 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

15. 2026-05-08
    status Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

16. 2026-05-05
    historical 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $485,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

18. 2026-03-30
    historical $485,000 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Fantastic investment opportunity with this beautifully updated side-by-side duplex. Each unit features three spacious bedrooms and one full bathroom, offering comfortable layouts for tenants. Not to mention the spacious backyard with a Sauna. Recent updates include new flooring, new countertops, and fresh paint throughout, along with a newer roof installed in 2022 and gutters and windows replaced in 2023. Both units are currently occupied with great, stable renters, providing immediate income for the new owner. With all major updates already completed, this property is truly turnkey and ready to be an excellent addition to any portfolio or owner occupant.

19. 2025-10-17
    listed $485,000 Active
20. 2025-10-17
    historical
21. 2025-09-05
    listed $500,000 Active
22. 2025-09-02
    historical
23. 2020-12-15
    soldstatus $351,200
24. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $351,200 Sold
25. 2020-11-12
    status Pending
26. 2020-11-05
    historical Contingent - Inspection
27. 2020-10-20
    price $359,900
28. 2020-10-20
    status Active
29. 2020-10-08
    historical
30. 2020-09-28
    price $379,900
31. 2020-09-17
    listed $389,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,332 · $694/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,332 · $694/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$8,332
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,316
• − Management: −$5,316
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable income: $4,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $10,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+22.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $475,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $485,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon $485,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listed $485,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $500,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $351,200 Public Records
• 2020-12-14 Sold (MLS) $351,200 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-20 Price Changed $359,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-20 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $379,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-17 Listed $389,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,332 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.