2409 Christian St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1920 435 sqft lot $36/sqft · 39% below area Est $49k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * INVESTORS ALERT * * * Add value and opportunity in Baltimore City. Interior rowhome ready for renovation with strong upside potential. Ideal for experienced investors looking to flip or hold as a rental. Nearby renovated properties selling significantly higher. Bring your contractor and vision—priced to move.

Key facts

• Millhill area
• 2 story townhouse
• Built 1920

Tags

• 2 STORY TOWNHOUSE
• MILLHILL AREA
• MINUTES TO CARROLL PARK
• WESTSIDE SHOPPING CENTER
• EASY ACCESS TO WILKENS AVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 43.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (67%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $30k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.87%
• DSCR: 6.91
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,189
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: 62.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2214 Wilkens Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (+2%)	9mo	$65,000	$76	75
534 S Smallwood St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	9mo	$39,900	$44	64
1028 Parksley Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$179	63
308 S Payson St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	894 (+6%)	7mo	$25,000	$28	60
2659 Lehman St	0.22mi	2/1.5	960 (+14%)	8mo	$124,000	$129	57
420 S Smallwood St	0.23mi	3/3.5 (+1)	910 (+8%)	4mo	$100,000	$110	57
347 S Mount St	0.63mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	9mo	$54,900	$61	51
1612 Lemmon St	0.73mi	2/1.0	744 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	46
1610 Lemmon St	0.73mi	2/1.0	744 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	46
1608 Lemmon St	0.73mi	2/1.0	744 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	46
1606 Lemmon St	0.74mi	2/1.0	744 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	46
1604 Lemmon St	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$27	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $61,358
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.18×
• Total profit: $161,137
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $681/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $287

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.24mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.26mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	23d	1	0.29mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.50mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	17d	1	0.63mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,375	$1.60	43d	1	0.67mi
1712 W Lombard St #4 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	43d	1	0.69mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	4d	1	0.83mi
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.85mi
2429 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	940	$600	$0.64	23d	1	0.87mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	3d	1	0.88mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.93mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.93mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	43d	1	0.95mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	12d	1	0.97mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	4d	1	0.97mi
28 N Norris St Baltimore, MD	1.0	2.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	43d	1	0.97mi
1215 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.02mi
48 S Carrollton Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	670	$1,600	$2.39	43d	1	1.05mi
1142 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,601	$1.48	1d	1	1.09mi
1160 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,575	$1.64	23d	1	1.10mi
1163 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1012	$1,700	$1.68	12d	1	1.10mi
1127 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,275	$1.18	23d	1	1.11mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	23d	1	1.14mi
3392 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	23d	1	1.17mi
923 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,625	$1.61	43d	1	1.19mi
847 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	952	$1,795	$1.89	4d	1	1.25mi
853 Reinhart St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	780	$1,800	$2.31	43d	1	1.26mi
101 N Schroeder St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,481	$2.39	2d	12	1.31mi
1125 Wicomico St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1068	$1,955	$1.83	23d	1	1.34mi
805 Washington Blvd Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	20d	1	1.35mi
805 Washington Blvd Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	1.35mi
519 Scott St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	43d	1	1.38mi
776 Washington Blvd Unit 3F Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.39mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	23d	1	1.39mi
1315 Harlem Ave Unit C Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	43d	1	1.39mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	1.42mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	4d	1	1.42mi
812 S Paca St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $30,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $30,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   remarks 401-char remark
9. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on marketlisting id $30,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-04-28
    price $85,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    * * * INVESTORS ALERT * * * Add value and opportunity in Baltimore City. Interior rowhome ready for renovation with strong upside potential. Ideal for experienced investors looking to flip or hold as a rental. Nearby renovated properties selling significantly higher. Bring your contractor and vision—priced to move.

11. 2026-03-16
    listed $90,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    * * * INVESTORS ALERT * * * Add value and opportunity in Baltimore City. Interior rowhome ready for renovation with strong upside potential. Ideal for experienced investors looking to flip or hold as a rental. Nearby renovated properties selling significantly higher. Bring your contractor and vision—priced to move.

12. 2025-01-06
    historical $1,250
13. 2024-12-28
    price $1,250
14. 2024-11-24
    listed $1,400
15. 2021-05-05
    historical
16. 2021-03-15
    price $39,900
17. 2021-03-13
    listed $34,900 Active
18. 2018-01-25
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2017-07-31
    price
20. 2017-04-22
    listed Active
21. 2017-04-22
    listed $2,700,000 Active
22. 2001-01-30
    soldstatus $5,000
23. 2001-01-05
    historical
24. 2000-12-09
    listed $7,500
25. 1998-09-28
    soldstatus $43,000
26. 1986-03-12
    soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$681
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $11,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,730
• After-tax cash flow: $8,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+277.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-06 Rental Removed $1,250 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $1,250 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-11-24 Listed for Rent $1,400 BRIGHTMLS
• 2021-05-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-15 Price Changed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-13 Listed $34,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-07-31 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-04-22 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-04-22 Listed $2,700,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-01-30 Sold (MLS) $5,000 MRIS
• 2001-01-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-12-09 Listed $7,500 MRIS
• 1998-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $681 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.