12218 Fox Chase Dr Unit C1 · Moon Lake, FL 34669

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Condo public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1987 $426/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Screened patio
• Pantry cabinet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW WINDOWS
• SCREENED PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PANTRY CABINET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Monthly condo fee reported (approx $426; fees billed quarterly); Total annual fees reported
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Extreme Management; Quarterly association fees (monthly equivalent noted); Association approval required; Association fees include cable TV, internet, pool, maintenance (structure & grounds), pest control, recreational facilities, trash, and water; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, pool, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Gated community; Key card entry
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Entry level: 1; Faces southwest; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as condominium (building 106)
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid wood cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside laundry room); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $145k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,926
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,065
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$426
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,620

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $220	+0% $179	+5% $138	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $106	+0% $179	+5% $251	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $215	base $179	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12706 White Bluff Rd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,870	$1.38	2d	1	0.81mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	4d	1	0.87mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	25d	1	1.19mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	1.20mi
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	6d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $426 · $5,112/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $145,000 Active
15. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $57,500
16. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus $57,500 Sold 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

17. 2017-11-09
    status Pending 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

18. 2017-10-31
    status Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

19. 2017-10-30
    status Pending 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

20. 2017-10-19
    listed $59,900 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 bath first-floor condo in very desirable Pine Ridge At Sugar Creek Village 55 plus gated community. Unfurnished except for Range, Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Disposal, Washer, Dryer, Electric Hot Water Heater and Rattan table and 2 matching chairs on the enclosed porch. This Condo is neat, Clean and well Kept. The community also has a large heated pool and spa, Shuffle Board Courts, Tennis Court, Horseshoe pits and a Community building with bathroom access from the pool, Kitchen, Library, Meeting room, TV, Pool Table and community office. The grounds feature mature landscaping with majestic Oak trees that give it a park-like atmosphere.

21. 2012-08-08
    soldstatus $35,000 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    LOVELY FIRST FLOOR CONDO: THIS IS A LIGHT & BRIGHT & WELL MAINTAINED 2/2 HOME WITH AN OPEN FLOOR PLAN; GREAT ROOM; LARGE KITCHEN WITH NEWER APPLIANCES & EATING AREA; SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM WITH SHOWER BATH & HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET; CEILING FANS GALORE; INSIDE LAUNDRY; SCREENED LANAI; FURNISHED; LOW MONTHLY FEES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, HOT TUB & TENNIS; QUIET ADULT COMMUNITY WITH MAGNIFICENT TREES; CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING

22. 2012-06-07
    listed $35,000 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    LOVELY FIRST FLOOR CONDO: THIS IS A LIGHT & BRIGHT & WELL MAINTAINED 2/2 HOME WITH AN OPEN FLOOR PLAN; GREAT ROOM; LARGE KITCHEN WITH NEWER APPLIANCES & EATING AREA; SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM WITH SHOWER BATH & HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET; CEILING FANS GALORE; INSIDE LAUNDRY; SCREENED LANAI; FURNISHED; LOW MONTHLY FEES INCLUDE CLUBHOUSE, HEATED POOL, HOT TUB & TENNIS; QUIET ADULT COMMUNITY WITH MAGNIFICENT TREES; CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING

23. 2011-11-22
    listed $39,990
24. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus $85,000
25. 2005-03-14
    soldstatus $85,000
26. 2005-01-04
    listed $89,900
27. 1995-07-28
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 203.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − HOA: −$5,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $35
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+258.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $57,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-19 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-07 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-22 Listed $39,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-14 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-04 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.