178 9th St · Lake Shore, MD 21122

$325,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1967 0.38 ac lot $217/sqft · 26% below area Est $440k · 26% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the water-oriented community of Chelsea Beach, this charming Pasadena home offers the perfect blend of comfort and lifestyle. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home showcases beautiful wood floors throughout the main level. A separate dining room with sliders opens to a spacious deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing while overlooking the expansive . 38-acre lot. The finished basement provides additional living space, including a versatile den perfect for a home office, guest area, or recreation room. Enjoy the benefits of a water-privileged community with convenient access to nearby amenities, making this a wonderful place to call home.

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Separate dining room
• Spacious deck

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• VERSATILE DEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer / septic tank; Hot water: other
• Home design: Detached property; Outside city limits
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Partially finished basement
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Water access to the Magothy River; Water-oriented property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range (oven/stove); Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Partially carpeted areas; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Walk-in shower in bathroom; Combination kitchen and dining area; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#378 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,250 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,455
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -26.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
178 9th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$200	100
201 Southwood Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	2mo	$412,000	$275	84
157 Woodsway	0.13mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,284 (-14%)	1mo	$550,000	$428	64
730 Bridge Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+12%)	8mo	$440,000	$261	59
180 Waldo Rd	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+2%)	0mo	$610,000	$400	57
243 9th St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,292 (-14%)	2mo	$480,000	$372	52
260 Magothy Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,552 (+4%)	4mo	$528,000	$340	52
575 6th St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+6%)	7mo	$389,000	$244	51
667 C St	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,716 (+14%)	9mo	$557,600	$325	48
610 Sutton Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,608 (+7%)	1mo	$635,000	$395	41
310 Claiborne Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	9mo	$455,000	$337	37
233 Beachwood Rd	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,628 (+8%)	6mo	$510,000	$313	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,955
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-36,186
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21122

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,008/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Tebbston Dr Lake Shore, MD	4.0	2.5	2178	$4,200	$1.93	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 666-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $325,000 Active 666-char remark
3. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus $499,234

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,275 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,008
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,911
• − Management: −$2,911
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $4,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lake Shore

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #20490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Shore, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 61,589
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 61,566
• Household income: $127,587
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -401.00%
• Current HPI: 283.1566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-39.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $499,234 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,008 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.